Wild vs. Avalanche Prediction: Can Minnesota Stave Off Elimination in Game 5?
The Colorado Avalanche are one win away from advancing to the Western Conference Finals. The Minnesota Wild, facing elimination at Ball Arena in Denver on Wednesday night, arrive desperate for the kind of performance that kept their season alive in Game 3. With Colorado holding a commanding 3-1 series lead, this is a crossroads game that will define both franchises’ playoff runs.
Colorado finished the regular season as the class of the NHL with a 55-16-11 record and 121 points — the best mark in the entire league. Nathan MacKinnon has been otherworldly, finishing the regular season with 53 goals and 74 assists for 127 points. He leads an Avalanche offense that averaged 3.7 goals per game. Minnesota punched their ticket to the second round with a 4-2 series win over the Dallas Stars after a 46-24-12 campaign good for third place in the Central Division. The Wild averaged 3.3 goals per game with Kirill Kaprizov leading the charge with 45 goals and 89 total points. This is a battle of two Central Division powers who know each other extremely well, having met nine times already this season.
Oddsmakers Heavily Favor the Avalanche to Close It Out
Colorado is a significant favorite to close this series on Wednesday. The Avalanche opened as -205 moneyline favorites, with Minnesota available as a +169 underdog. The over/under sits at 6.5 goals. The puckline has Colorado at +118 to win by two or more goals, while the Wild are -190 to cover the +1.5. The market clearly expects Colorado to advance tonight, and the series results support that outlook.
MacKinnon and a Relentless Offense vs. a Wild Team Desperate to Survive
The scoring in this series has been as wild as advertised. Game 1 saw Colorado win 9-6, a chaotic high-scoring affair where Cale Makar tallied two goals and Devon Toews, MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen, Sam Malinski, Jack Drury, Nazem Kadri, and Nick Blankenburg each found the net. Game 2 was a 5-2 Colorado victory. Minnesota then showed what they are capable of in Game 3, shutting down the Avalanche offense in a 5-1 blowout where Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber, Quinn Hughes, Matt Boldy, and Ryan Hartman all scored. Jesper Wallstedt made 35 saves on 36 shots, posting a .972 save percentage in arguably the best goaltending performance of the series.
Game 4 brought Colorado back to dominant form, however. The Avalanche won 5-2 to reclaim their 3-1 series lead. MacKinnon scored in that game while the Avs offense found its rhythm again. Wallstedt, who carries a 2.61 goals-against average on the season, had been the Wild’s best chance to steal this series — his Game 3 performance proved it. Scott Wedgewood holds a 2.02 GAA for Colorado this season and has been reliable when the offense puts up big numbers behind him. The key issue for Minnesota has been consistency: their defense conceded 240 goals during the regular season, allowing 2.9 per game, while Colorado’s defense limited opponents to just 203 goals at 2.5 per game.
MacKinnon is the runaway favorite for the Conn Smythe if Colorado advances. He enters Game 5 having already had multiple multi-point efforts in this series and showing no signs of slowing down. Kaprizov on the other side is Minnesota’s lone counterpart in the superstar conversation — the Russian winger posted 45 goals this season and has been active in the series, but the Wild need significantly more supporting cast production to pull off what would be one of the more dramatic comeback wins in recent playoff memory.
Colorado’s home record this season was a dominant 26-9-6, and they have been nearly unbeatable at Ball Arena throughout the playoffs. Minnesota’s road record of 23-14-4 is decent but not nearly enough to inspire confidence in an elimination scenario against the best team in the NHL. Quinn Hughes has been a key contributor on the blue line for the Wild with 48 assists on the season, providing offensive punch from the back end that Colorado must account for. But when the Avalanche are firing on all cylinders — as they were in Games 1, 2, and 4 — they simply have too many weapons for any team to contain.
If you are looking to get involved on any Colorado sports betting platforms for tonight’s game, the Avalanche moneyline is the consensus play from most sharp bettors. The puck line offers some value if you think Colorado dominates, and the under at 6.5 could be interesting given that Wallstedt is capable of another stellar performance.
Prediction and Best Bet
Colorado has shown throughout this series that the Avalanche are simply a step above Minnesota. The one exception — Game 3 — required a near-perfect game from Wallstedt and an off night from the Colorado offense. The Avalanche responded in Game 4 by reasserting their dominance. On home ice, with a chance to close out the series, Jared Bednar’s team should come out with urgency. MacKinnon will not need extra motivation in an elimination game.
Minnesota is fighting for their season, and the Wild have the personnel to make it uncomfortable for at least two periods. Kaprizov will be dangerous, and if Wallstedt channels his Game 3 form, the Wild have a chance. But Colorado’s depth — MacKinnon, Makar, Kadri, Lehkonen, Toews — is simply too much to suppress for a full sixty minutes, especially at Ball Arena.
- Prediction: Colorado Avalanche 5, Minnesota Wild 2
- Best Bet: Colorado Avalanche moneyline (-205)
Laying -205 on the moneyline is not cheap, but Colorado has earned every bit of that price. They have won three of four games in this series, and they have the best player in the world at the top of their lineup. Minnesota needs a perfect game to extend things to Game 6 — and the Avalanche have enough firepower to make perfection impossible. Take Colorado to close it out at home tonight. Check the NHL Stanley Cup odds to see how Colorado is viewed in the broader championship picture.
Aaron White
Sports Betting Contributor
Aaron White graduated from Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. His industry experience includes projects for the Chicago Cubs, The Sporting News, and QL Gaming Group. At Hello Rookie, he covers the NFL and NBA from a betting and DFS perspective.
