What Prediction Markets Say About McGregor’s Comeback, Corey Seager’s MVP Odds, and Austin Reaves’ Future

Betting markets don’t just cover point spreads anymore. This week, prediction platforms are weighing in on Conor McGregor’s comeback fight, whether Corey Seager can salvage an MVP case, and if Austin Reaves might land somewhere new. Here’s what the crowd is saying about each.

Is Conor McGregor Walking Into a Loss?

McGregor finally returns to the octagon on July 11 at UFC 329, rematching Max Holloway in the welterweight main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It’s McGregor’s first fight in five years after a broken leg against Dustin Poirier in 2021 and an 18-month suspension for missing drug tests that only ended this past March. Prediction markets currently favor Holloway at roughly 65.5% to win, with McGregor at 34.5%.

The two actually fought once before, back in 2013, when McGregor won by unanimous decision in just his second UFC bout. A lot has changed since. Holloway has stayed busy, running his record to 27-9 and briefly holding the symbolic BMF title before dropping a decision to Charles Oliveira in March. McGregor sits at 22-6 for his career, but a five-year layoff against an opponent who fights as often as Holloway does is a tough spot, and the market seems to agree.

Corey Seager’s MVP Case Isn’t Getting Any Traction

On the baseball side, prediction markets have all but written off Corey Seager’s American League MVP chances, pricing him at less than 1% to win the award. It’s easy to see why. Seager is batting just .182 with 10 homers and 25 RBI this season, a rough stretch that includes time missed with a back injury. That’s a big step down from the career .284 hitter Rangers fans are used to seeing.

The real race is elsewhere. Yordan Alvarez is the current favorite, with Nick Kurtz and Bobby Witt Jr. right behind him in the odds. Here’s the interesting part, though: the Rangers are actually in first place in the AL West at 43-42 and have won five straight games, so the team is finding a way to win even without an MVP-level year from its star shortstop.

Austin Reaves Isn’t Going Anywhere

The third market in play asks whether Austin Reaves could end up with the Toronto Raptors next season. Bettors have basically closed that door, with “No” priced at 99.85%. The reason is straightforward: Reaves is finalizing a four-year, $185 million deal to stay with the Lakers, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania, locking him in alongside Luka Dončić for years to come. Toronto’s actual offseason trade buzz has been tied to Kawhi Leonard rumors, not Reaves, so this market was never really in question once the Lakers news broke.

The Common Thread

Each of these markets tells the same basic story: recent results and confirmed news move the needle far more than star power or wishful thinking. Holloway’s activity outweighs McGregor’s name recognition on the current line. Seager’s actual 2026 numbers have crowded out any nostalgia-driven MVP betting. And a signed contract has closed the book on Reaves speculation before it even got going.

If you’re new to betting on outcomes like these rather than point spreads, our guide on sports betting by state is a good place to start, and fans looking ahead to UFC 329 can check the latest live UFC odds before the card. For the AL MVP race, our live MLB odds page tracks how the futures market is shifting week to week, and NBA fans watching the Lakers’ offseason can follow along with our live NBA odds tracker. Anyone looking to get in on the McGregor-Holloway card should also check the DraftKings Promo Code for new-user offers before fight night.