Week 5 College Football Predictions: The Smart Money Picks You Don’t Want to Miss!

Week 5 of the 2024 college football season brings some intriguing matchups. From Miami’s continued dominance to Oklahoma’s redemption hopes, here’s how these games might unfold and where the value lies in betting.

Virginia Tech at (7) Miami (-19.5, O/U 54.5)

Miami looks to stay undefeated as they host a struggling Virginia Tech team.

Coming off a dominant 50-15 win over South Florida, the Hurricanes are firing on all cylinders. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is reeling from a close 26-23 loss to Rutgers, which has us questioning their ability to handle a strong opponent like Miami.

Miami’s offense has been a machine this year. They’re averaging over 40 points per game.

Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has shown quite a bit of inconsistency, especially on defense. This has allowed Rutgers to move the ball with relative ease. The Hokies will need to shore up that side of the ball quickly or this one could get ugly — and fast.

The implied score here is 37-18 in favor of Miami, and that feels about right to us.

Miami’s defense has been sharp, and with Virginia Tech struggling to put up points against weaker teams, it’s hard to see them keeping up. But with a spread of 19.5 points, Virginia Tech could still make this a closer game than many expect, especially if they can limit turnovers and find some success running the ball.

Betting Insight

Miami is 3-1 ATS this year, while Virginia Tech has only covered once in three tries. History leans Miami’s way too, with the Hurricanes winning both of their last two meetings against the Hokies.

Miami’s explosive offense paired with Virginia Tech’s tendency to struggle against high-powered attacks makes the over (54.5) the play we’d go with. But at nearly three touchdowns, Virginia Tech +19.5 feels like the safer side of this spread.

• Pick ATS: Virginia Tech +19.5
• Pick O/U: Over 54.5
• Score Prediction: Miami 32, Virginia Tech 25
• Prop Bet: Miami to score over 34.5 points – Their offense has been too reliable not to trust them getting to 35.

Oklahoma (-2.5) at Auburn (O/U 46.5)

This will be Oklahoma’s first SEC road test, and they’re coming off a tough 25-15 loss to Tennessee in their first conference matchup.

The Sooners’ offense, led by Jackson Arnold, struggled a bit in that game, which ultimately prompted a change at quarterback. Michael Hawkins Jr. will get the start against Auburn after a solid showing in relief. Can he keep it up? We’ll see.

Auburn also heads into this game after a loss, falling 24-14 to Arkansas.

Freshman quarterback Hank Brown had a rough outing, and the offense sputtered until backup Payton Thorne came in to steady the ship.

Both teams are in search of offensive consistency, and this game could turn into a defensive battle as a result. See where we’re going with this?

The implied score here is Oklahoma 26, Auburn 23, and given the quarterback uncertainties on both sides, this feels like a low-scoring grind to the end.

Oklahoma’s defense has been solid, allowing just 345 yards against Tennessee despite their offensive struggles. Auburn’s defense has been half-decent too, but they’ve also shown cracks in their secondary, giving up 285 passing yards to Arkansas.

This game will come down to the two young QBs.

Hawkins Jr. has looked more comfortable than Brown or Thorne, which should give the Sooners a slight edge. However, Auburn at home is never easy. The Tigers have a knack for keeping things close in these kinds of games.

Betting Insight

Oklahoma is favored by a slim 2.5 points, and they should be able to cover if Hawkins can settle in quickly.

But this is a game where the under (46.5) seems like the safer bet to us, given both teams’ struggles moving the ball in recent weeks.

• Pick ATS: Oklahoma -2.5
• Pick O/U: Under 46.5
• Score Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Auburn 18
• Prop Bet: Oklahoma to win by 1-6 points – Auburn’s home-field advantage and defensive toughness should keep this close.

BYU at Baylor (-3.5, O/U 48.5)

After a heartbreaking overtime loss to Colorado (it was oh so close!), Baylor is a team looking for redemption.

Head coach Dave Aranda’s job might be on the line, and the Bears need a strong showing at home.

Meanwhile, BYU is riding high after a 38-9 win over Kansas State, but the advanced stats show that the game wasn’t as dominant as the score indicated.

Baylor’s defense has been strong, ranking in the top 10 in both passing and rushing success rates allowed. But the offense, with Sawyer Robertson now under center, has been a different beast. They should be able to take advantage of a BYU defense that’s been solid but not quite as elite as their ranking suggests.

Despite BYU’s recent success, the turnover luck and strange special teams play that helped them beat Kansas State won’t be sustainable against a Baylor team that’s desperate for a win.

Betting Insight

Baylor is favored by just 3.5 points, and this feels like a classic bounce-back spot.

BYU’s recent win could lead to some overvaluation, making Baylor a great play at home. The under (48.5) is tempting given Baylor’s defensive dominance, but if Robertson can continue the route he’s been on, they could push this game into the 50s.

• Pick ATS: Baylor -3.5
• Pick O/U: Over 48.5
• Score Prediction: Baylor 31, BYU 24
• Prop Bet: Baylor to score first – They’ll come out motivated and aggressive after last week’s heartbreak.

Make Your CFB Picks for Week 5

These matchups are bound to bring drama, and with some smart plays, you can come out on top. We love games where there’s a clash and you can take advantage of some better odds and lines.

Before you start loading up your bet slip with these gems, be sure to take advantage of the bonus offers some of the big sportsbooks have going on for college football. We wouldn’t want you to leave money on the table.

Stay sharp, and let’s get after it!