USA vs. Canada Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

Team USA and Team Canada meet in a high-stakes battle on the ice tonight in Montreal. Each team looking to gain some additional ground in the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off after each having 1 game under their belts thus far. Both teams are coming off opening-game wins, with the Americans rolling past Finland 6-1 in a blowout and Canada needing an overtime win to take down Sweden. That gives Team USA 3 points and Canada 2 points heading into tonight’s rivalry.

Now, with the USA holding a slight points lead in the standings, this long-standing rivalry takes center stage and everyone is excited to see it go down. This just might be the preview for the Championship game that will be held next week in Boston.

Before you head over to your favorite sportsbook and start laying down some bets, let’s break down the teams, the odds, and see who we’re predicting will take the 2 or 3 points in this Saturday night matchup.

USA vs. Canada Odds

The bookmakers are saying that these 2 powerhouses are about even on paper with each holding a moneyline of -110. However, we can tell that they favor Team USA slightly when we take a look at the puck line as they have Team USA at -278 and Canada at +225. That’s a much sharper contrast compared to the moneyline.

As for the total, oddsmakers are putting the over/under at 6.5 points which feels about right given both teams have great offenses and stellar blue lines. This just might be quite a battle for the North American teams.

Canada’s Physicality and Home Ice

Canada unquestionably had the tougher test in its opener. They grinded out an overtime win against Sweden and walked away with just 2 points for the tournament.

That battle-tested experience should help against a fast, skilled American squad that has just as many stars on their roster as the Canadiens.

Playing at home is another key advantage that we can’t overlook. This is especially true with the last change allowing Canada to control matchups. 

With some of the biggest names in the NHL like Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and Brad Marchand leading the offensive charge, Coach Jon Cooper can still use familiar Tampa Bay connections like Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel to help neutralize USA’s top weapons such as the Tkachuk brothers who each notched 2 goals in the game against Finland.

USA’s Goaltending Advantage

If there’s a clear advantage in this game, it’s in the net.

Connor Hellebuyck, fresh off a dominant performance against Finland, is widely regarded as one of the best netminders in the world. 

He stopped an incredible 1.73 goals above expected in that game which proves why he’s a Vezina Trophy front-runner. Honestly, nobody else really comes close at this point as he commands a .925 SV% and a 2.07 GAA in the NHL.

On the other end of the ice, Jordan Binnington had some shaky moments but made key stops when needed. He’s not nearly as dominant as Hellebuyck with his .896 SV% and 2.89 GAA, so he’ll need the Canadian defense to step up and keep the shot volume to a minimum.

Defensive Structure Favors the Under

Both teams limited opponents to under 25 shots in their openers. This just goes to show that they have a commitment to tight defensive play.

The Americans were physical but still disciplined against Finland. They had just 6 PIM and didn’t give up a single power-play goal. While Canada stifled Sweden’s attack, they only had 2 PIM and didn’t give up a goal during that time.

If this game stays 5-on-5 and doesn’t turn into a special teams battle, goals just might be hard to come by. With plenty of discipline between these 2 teams and solid defenses, getting to 7 points total might be a tall task.

USA vs Canada Prediction

Despite USA’s edge in net, Canada’s overall structure, home ice, and ability to control matchups make them the better bet coming into tonight.

They’ve had the tougher test already, and their top players — including Connor McDavid — will undoubtedly be motivated after a relatively quiet opener. If Binnington holds his own, Canada should pull this out.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: USA 2, Canada 3
• Best Bet: Canada on the ML

We definitely expect a tight, physical game. With both teams being almost equal on paper, we have to lean on some of the intangibles like motivation and home ice. On top of that, Canada’s experience in close games should help them get the job done.

4 Nations Face Off Schedule