Finland vs Sweden Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for the 4 Nations Face Off

A Scandinavian rivalry heats up at the 4 Nations Face-Off as Finland and Sweden clash at the Bell Centre in just a few hours. Both teams are looking to bounce back after their expected opening-game losses, but Sweden enters this matchup as the favorite with -159 on the moneyline.

Will the Swedes take full advantage of Finland’s defensive struggles, or can the Finns pull off an upset? This game is looking to be a bit closer than both of their previous games so we’re thinking this will be one of the best games of the series.

Before you load up your bet slip, we’ve got the expert analysis and prediction for the Scandinavian showdown.

Finland vs Sweden Betting Odds

As we mentioned, Sweden is favored at -159 on the moneyline, while Finland sits at +140. That’s not a huge spread in the odds which means this game might just be closer than many expect. It could be the making of an upset as well.

The puck line has Sweden at -1.5 at +160 while Finland gets +1.5 at -190 for some extra cushion. In their previous matchups, Sweden was able to cover the puck line in OT against a dominant Canada team, but Sweden was blown away by the Americans.

The total is set at just 5.5 goals, with the Over at +110 and the Under at -130. That’s a pretty low total, however, given Finland’s defensive issues and Sweden’s offensive edge, the Over could be a solid bet.

Why Sweden Has the Edge

Sweden may have lost to Canada in overtime, but they played a really impressive game after a slow start. Everyone was surprised by how well that game went for the Swedes.

In the 2nd and 3rd periods, Sweden dominated puck possession with a stellar 63.89 Corsi For percentage and a 62.25 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5. We consider anything over 55% to be hot. Hopefully, for them, that kind of control should carry over against a weaker Finnish squad.

On the other end of the ice, Finland’s defense is a big concern. With Miro Heiskanen out due to his knee, the Finns are leaning on Urho Vaakanainen and Nikolas Matinpalo, who have a combined 186 NHL games between them. That lack of experience is a huge problem they’ll have to overcome against Sweden’s deep offensive unit.

Goaltending also favors Sweden. They could start Linus Ullmark, who has a dominant .915 save percentage, 2.49 goals-against average, and 0.26 goals saved above average per 60 minutes this season. Finland’s Juuse Saros has struggled with a .898 SV% and 2.95 GAA, and backup Kevin Lankinen hasn’t been much better. Just like the rest of the team, the goaltending, beyond Saros, doesn’t have tons of experience at the NHL level.

This game seems to be leaning heavily towards Sweden despite the odds. On paper, the Swedes are a dominant team compared to Finland who got their bell rung against Team USA on Thursday night with a score of 6-1. They’ll need to pull it together and play all-around better hockey if they’re going to get a point in the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Sweden vs Finland Prediction and Best Bet

Sweden is the better team in every key area — offense, defense, and goaltending.

Finland has a young, inexperienced blue line, and that could be a big problem against a Swedish squad that controls possession and routinely generates high-danger chances.

While we think that Finland will battle hard in a rivalry game, the talent gap is just too much. We think that Sweden should win in regulation, and we’re taking them at -159 on the moneyline. The puck line in these games is a tough one as there are so many variables that we can’t nail down with teams that haven’t played much together. That said, Finland definitely has the capacity to win this by 2+ goals.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Sweden 5, Finland 2
• Best Bet: Sweden on the ML

If you’re looking for a bit more value, the Over 5.5 goals at +110 is also worth taking a look at, given Sweden’s offensive upside and Finland’s defensive weaknesses.

We expect the Swedes to rebound in a big way and they should walk away with 3 points to take the temporary lead in the 4 Nations Face Off.

4 Nations Face Off Schedule