UFC Vegas 95 Betting Preview: Our 4 Best Bets for Saturday, August 10

The UFC Apex will host its 95th Fight Night this week! 10 fights will take place, with Heavyweights Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac headlining the card in what could be an important rematch for the division.

Check out our best bet for their clash and 3 others before the action kicks off Saturday, 5 PM EST.

Youssef Zalal by Unanimous Decision +110 (DraftKings)

Zalal is one of the largest favorites on this card priced at -400 on most books. For me, that puts him just out of reach as a parlay piece, so I’ll take him by unanimous decision instead.

He’ll most likely look to use his grappling to rack up control time on the mat since his opponent has struggled with fighters that can mix both striking and wrestling. Jarno Errens has fast hands and turned in his best performance yet earlier this year.

However, that was against a one-dimensional boxer making his debut. Now that grappling is involved again, I think we see him struggle with the level changes Zalal brings. Zalal should win at least 2 of the 3 clearly to cash this plus money ticket. You can find this prop under “Winning Method” on DK.

Karol Rosa by Dec -115 (Bet365)

Let’s play this solid number for the moderate favorite to win on the scorecards. Rosa has struggled with throwing volume on the feet in the past, but corrected that flaw in her last fight against Irene Aldana.

Even though she ended up losing against the talented boxer, Rosa was able to damage Aldana with leg kicks and even tagged her with some punches. Her opponent this week is also a boxer, but the story of Pannie Kianzad’s last two losses has been her poor takedown defense.

Rosa has had some earlier fights where she’s shot multiple takedowns and has held her opponents down for control time. I see her using a mix of heavy shots and timely takedowns to take this one by decision.

Karl Williams ML AND Danny Barlow ML -112 (BetMGM)

Karl Williams should have a sizeable grappling advantage and he’s proven that he knows how to use it. His opponent, Jhonata Diniz, failed the former kickboxer test of defending takedowns against a far less superior grappler in his debut fight. Diniz was taken down one minute in and ended the round on the wrong side of full mount. Williams has 16 takedowns for 22 minutes of control time in his 3 UFC fights. If he survives early exchanges, he should quickly be in control of this fight.

Our second leg features the undefeated 170-pounder Danny Barlow. Barlow hits hard and has a 79-inch reach to go along with it. This was supposed to be a step up in competition for him, but his original opponent pulled out due to injury.

In steps UFC newcomer Nikolay Veretennikov, and although he’s looked dangerous at times, I wasn’t fond of his striking defense in exchanges. He sometimes holds his chin high and often has his hands low as well. Both should land him in trouble against a dangerous striker like Barlow. I think Barlow finds a late finish or wins a decision based on damage.

Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac To Start Rd 4 -132 (FanDuel)

This week’s main event is a 2020 rematch where Tybura beat Spivac by decision. Both have similar styles, mostly leaning on their grappling when the matchup calls for it. Tybura got the better of Spivac on the mat last time out, controlling Spivac for 8 minutes.

Tybura also brings a striking advantage here, but he’s now 38 and will have to face an improving Spivac. Instead of picking a winner, I like this one to mirror their first matchup, where they went the full three rounds with ease.

FGTD has some value as well, but I won’t want to risk one of these two gassing late. I think we see an uneventful but competitive fight, with both looking tentative early.