The UFC’s summer continues with a trip to the Apex in Las Vegas this week! 12 fights will be featured, headlined by Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba.
Check out our best bets for the main event and the fights leading up to it below. Is it Saturday yet?
Usman and fellow Heavyweight wrestler Thomas Petersen will kick off the card this week. Both fighters are coming off losses, but Petersen really failed to impress in his debut with the company earlier this year. He relies heavily on his grappling and could be in trouble again if he fails to score takedowns.
As mentioned, Usman has also relied on his wrestling, but I think he should have enough of an advantage striking to get back in the win column. He had moments on the feet against a more polished striker, Mick Parkin, in his last showing to have confidence against a one-dimensional Petersen.
Petersen’s striking seems to be miles behind his wrestling. The majority of his strikes seem to be used to push his opponents back so he can use the cage for takedown attempts. He may have moments where he’s successful with that since he’ll have the weight advantage, but I think Usman lands the more damaging shots in between Petersen’s success in what could be a sometimes sloppy decision win.
The very next fight on the card will feature the women’s 135 division when Lucie Pudilova takes on Luana Carolina.
Pudilova has put a heavy emphasis on her grappling since returning to the UFC in 2022. She started her comeback with a win before losing two in a row recently. Her split decision loss came with controversy, as most had her on the winning side against Joselyne Edwards. Her next fight was against respected grappler Alin Perez, where she was dominated on the mat for two rounds but put a gassed Perez on her back for the third.
Grappling won’t be a worry for her when she takes on Carolina. Carolina has a Muay Thai background and prefers to keep fights standing to utilize her long frame. She can be dangerous when she throws with volume, but she is hittable and can get off to slow starts.
If she starts slow again, I can see Pudilova’s grappling looking good, as she could easily advance on her opponent. Even though there may be times when she doesn’t deal well with Carolina’s striking, I think she finds timely takedowns to slow the Brazilian down for a decision win.
Even though Ogden fights defensively, I like getting a plus number for this one to avoid the scorecards since 68% of their combined wins have been by finish. As Ogden looks to pop his jab and avoid Radzhabov, Radzhabov will use his power and wrestling to move forward in the smaller Apex cage.
Radzhabov throws almost everything with power and is coming off a TKO win in his last showing in the same venue. However, his weakness is both his cardio and takedown defense, which happens to be Ogden’s strengths.
Ogden is a BJJ blackbelt and has 11 submission wins to show for it. I think Radzhabov’s consistent pressure will lead to an exciting fight that ends with a Radzhabov TKO or a late Ogden sub.
Our top parlay this week includes the main event between top strawweight contenders Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba.
I’ll shy away from a winner and side with o1.5, as I feel like these two will get off to a slow start with 5 rounds in mind. Lemos is a power puncher who’s been taken down plenty in her recent showings, while Jandiroba clearly does her best work on the mat.
Jandiroba has tricky movement on the feet that requires some reading from a striker like Lemos. Meanwhile, Jandiroba will want to avoid Lemos’ power early, and Lemos will have to be patient to avoid takedowns. I think we’ll see steady action later in this fight, but the clash of styles should make for a slower start.
Our first leg takes place earlier in the card in the Bantamweight division. Although Kelleher is coming off 3 first-round losses, they were against top-level talent in the division. With respect to Gibson, I think we can agree that he’s not that, and I’m surprised to see him as a moderate favorite.
Instead of trusting an aging fighter coming off a TKO loss, I’ll bank on him having success with his grappling to extend this fight. Gibson was taken down twice against Miles Johns in his last showing for 6 minutes of control time. He also avoided 6 other attempts, so his success in stuffing takedowns could also aid us in the over.
If this one stays standing instead, both have combined for 15 TKOs in their 44 wins, so power on the feet shouldn’t be an issue. Expect these two to do a bit of everything in a fight that could go late.
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