UFC 302 Betting Guide: Odds, Best Bets, and Our Top Parlay for Saturday, June 1

UFC 302 Odds, Best Bets, and Our Top Parlay for Saturday, June 1

UFC returns to PPV this Saturday when the promotion heads to Newark, New Jersey. 12 fights are on the card, with pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev taking on Dustin Poirier in our main event.

Let’s take a look at a couple of the fights leading up to the big Lightweight clash and place some best bets!

Bet365 Sportsbook
Choose your Offer: Bet$5 Get $150 or Get a First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000 Rated 4.5 Out Of 5.0 Stars
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FanDuel Sportsbook
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus BetsIf Your Team Wins Rated 4.8 Out Of 5.0 Stars
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BetMGM Sportsbook
First Bet Offer $1500Excludes NY, NC, NV and PR | Promo Code: EWBET1 Rated 4.9 Out Of 5.0 Stars
21+ Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler

Andre Lima ML AND Jailton Almeida ML -106 (FanDuel)

For our two-leg parlay this week, we’re going to bet on the two Brazilians to earn wins on Saturday.

Lima is getting his second replacement, with Mitch Raposo stepping in on a week’s notice. Raposo lost both his DWCS and TUF showings but could return as an improved striker to go with his state-champion wrestling background. Still, I think he’ll be outpointed on the feet against a former kickboxer champion that has the defensive grappling to counter Raposo’s wrestling. I don’t see a short-notice version of Raposo doing enough to pull the upset here.

Jailton Almeida takes on another Heavyweight grappler, Alexandr Romanov. Almeida is coming off his first loss in 6 years, where he was in control early until he was finished in round 2 against Curtis Blaydes earlier this year.

I see Almeida having his usual grappling success until Romanov’s poor cardio begins to set in. Almost all of his fights that have been extended have left the 33-year-old gasping for air. Almeida should score an early takedown where he will begin to make Romanov work. I don’t see Romanov having the energy to accomplish anything after that.

Bassil Hafez to win by finish +110 (DraftKings)

Hafez is one of our heavy favorites on the card, listed at -400 on some books for his matchup with Mickey Gall. Usually, I’m skeptical of a big number from a fighter who’s only making his second walk for the UFC, but after review, he should be in a great position to finish the veteran Gall.

Hafez has a powerful right hand and likes to chase subs once he scores takedowns. Gall will welcome a grappling match, but he’s been hurt on the feet in a lot of his fights, including a recent TKO loss to Mike Malott in 2022. It’s also worth noting that Gall’s last fight was that 2022 loss to Malott, so ring rust could be a factor as well.

It feels like Hafez is getting a favorable matchup for his short-notice performance against Jack Della Maddalena last year, and I think he has both the grappling and striking to end this early. Definitely worth taking at plus money.

Roman Kopylov ML +100 (Bet365)

This number has flipped in recent days, with Cesar Almeida receiving heavy money to become the new betting favorite. I do think this could be a close stand-up fight, but I’m not sure how bettors have confidence in Almeida with only 5 MMA fights on his record.

That confidence is mostly from Almeida’s kickboxing record, where he even holds a 1-2 record against Light Heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. That success may transfer over, but having to test that against a younger fighter with three times the amount of MMA fights he has seems like a tall task.

Kopylov has 15 fights compared to Almeida’s 5 (his first being in 2016), and 7 of Kopylov’s have been in the UFC. Almeida is fresh off his UFC debut, where his opponent laid flat for him in round 2.

I understand the matchup could favor the better striker, but that could easily be Kopylov at times here. I like being on the side of youth and experience when I bet, so I’ll take the Russian at plus money.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa To Start Rd 4 -132 (FanDuel)

If you’re unfamiliar with Sean Strickland, he likes to fight defensively in his Philly shell while he throws out constant jabs. He combines this with his great cardio to out-point many of his opponents on the scorecards. 6 out of his last 7 five round fights have gone the full time. His only recent stoppage was against Abus Magomedov, who completely gassed late in the second, allowing Strickland to jump on him for the TKO finish.

Costa has the finishing upside here, with 12 of his 14 wins coming from stoppage, but he hasn’t scored a finish since moving up in competition a few years back. 4 of his last 5 have gone to a decision, with his TKO loss to Israel Adesanya being the only fight not to.

He has a great chin and will have the cardio to last all 5. I think we see some patience from the two early with 5 rounds in mind, leading to a close decision win for either man.

Carmelo Roldan

Sports Betting Contributor

Carmelo graduated from Kent State University with a bachelor’s degree in business management. Using his 10+ years of sports betting experience, Carmelo is one of the main analysts for UFC on HelloRookie.