Saints vs Chiefs: 3 Player Props and Best Bet for Monday Night Football

The action for Week 5 wraps up tonight as the New Orleans Saints (2-2) square off against the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) in Arrowhead Stadium.

New Orleans shocked everyone with their offensive explosion to start the season, scoring nearly 90 points in the first two weeks against the Dallas Cowboys and the Carolina Panthers. Since then, the Saints have returned to Earth in consecutive losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons.

Kansas City has yet to fall since Christmas Day in 2023. The Chiefs have won 10 consecutive regular and post-season games since that loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, and the team looks primed to make another run to the Super Bowl this season.

Will Kansas City carry on with its winning ways, or will the Saints march into Arrowhead and win this matchup? We’ll cover that and our three best player prop bets in this article.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes OVER 230.5 Passing Yards

Kansas City has started the season with four straight wins by a touchdown or less, including the last time the Chiefs played an NFC South opponent. In those four games, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 68.6 percent of his passes for 904 yards and six touchdowns against five interceptions.

Mahomes has surpassed his player prop bet mark twice in those contests. His last time out – against the Los Angeles Chargers – the quarterback completed 19 of 29 passes for 245 yards despite losing one of his biggest targets in the process.

Despite missing wide receiver Rashee Rice, expect Mahomes to finish with at least 231 yards passing tonight. New Orleans allowed only 135 yards passing against Carolina, and since have allowed at least 235 yards to every single opponent.

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara UNDER 67.5 Rushing Yards

Saints running back Alvin Kamara has been on a tear to start the season. The veteran running back is averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game, averaging 4.5 yards per rush through his first four games.

The 29-year-old athlete has finished with no fewer than 77 yards rushing in any of the team’s four games, and the Pro Bowler has 174 receiving yards on 17 receptions to boot. Averaging 134 total yards per game with six total touchdowns shows how important he is to New Orleans.

Meanwhile, Kansas City has been one of the best defenses against the run this season, allowing just under 100 yards per outing to opponents. The Chiefs are even better against running backs, holding them to an average of 57 rushing yards per game. Expect Kamara to fall short of meeting his player prop bet tonight.

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards

Through three games, Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce had almost as many receiving yards as his girlfriend Taylor Swift has Top-10 songs. To open the season, Kelce had eight receptions for 69 yards (for comparison, Swift has 59 Top-10 songs).

With Rice out of last week’s contest, Kelce came alive and recorded seven receptions for 89 yards to help his team earn a 17-10 victory over the Chargers. Without Rice returning to the lineup anytime soon, should bettors expect the veteran tight end to replicate this performance?

When Philadelphia played the Saints, the Eagles’ tight ends earned 170 total yards on 10 catches. That bodes well for Kansas City’s top target, giving bettors confidence in taking Kelce to exceed the total yardage needed to cover this player prop bet.

Best Bet: Saints (+5.5)

This pick has little to do with the outcome of the game as most believe the Chiefs will win this contest, and so do I. What it has to do with is Kansas City’s inability to win by a wide margin. Expect this game to be close throughout and for the Chiefs to win by a field goal or less.