The Dodgers have already taken the first two games of this series by a single run apiece, and the Pirates need to find a way to slow down a lineup that hasn’t stopped hitting for a month.
Quick take:
- Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
- Why: Blake Snell has been nearly unhittable since returning, and Pittsburgh’s lineup has managed just seven combined runs over the first two games of this series
- The number to watch: Snell’s 12.0 K/9 across his last two starts
Pittsburgh limps into the series finale at 63-68, sitting fourth in the NL Central and 18 games back with little left to play for beyond pride and evaluating young talent down the stretch. Los Angeles, meanwhile, is rolling — 79-51, in first place in the NL West, winners of five straight, and looking every bit like a team gearing up for another October run.
Friday’s extra-innings loss and Saturday’s one-run defeat have Pittsburgh searching for answers against a Dodgers pitching staff that’s been stingy all series. This finale gives the Pirates one more shot to avoid a sweep before Blake Snell takes the mound looking to complete it.
The Market Isn’t Buying a Pirates Upset
Oddsmakers have installed the Dodgers as heavy favorites, with the moneyline sitting around -259 to -292 depending on the book, while Pittsburgh sits out near +233 to +235. The run line has Los Angeles at -1.5 (-130) and Pittsburgh getting the same number at +108, with the total set at 8.5. That gap reflects both the head-to-head results this weekend and the pitching matchup on paper — Snell has been the best version of himself lately, while Lake Bachar is a rookie-level arm still finding his footing against a lineup this dangerous. Bettors leaning on the Dodgers moneyline can check the latest DraftKings promo code for a boost on tonight’s slate.
| Wednesday, October 7 at 6:10 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 
-1.5 (114) | 
-148 | 
O 7.5 (-110) |
| Atlanta Braves | 
+1.5 (-141) |
+128 |
U 7.5 (-107) |
Recent Form
The gap in these two teams’ trajectories shows up clearly in their recent stretches, and the head-to-head log from this series only reinforces it.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | @Detroit Tigers | -1.5 / 9.5 | Lost 8-7 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @Detroit Tigers | -1.5 / 9.5 | Lost 4-3 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @Detroit Tigers | -1.5 / 9.5 | Won 2-4 | Won / Under |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Detroit Tigers | +1.5 / 8.5 | Lost 8-7 | Won / Over |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Detroit Tigers | +1.5 / 8.5 | Lost 4-3 | Won / Under |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @Detroit Tigers | +1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 8-7 | Won / Over |
| Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals | -1.5 / 7.5 | Won 2-0 | Won / Under |
| Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals | -1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 1-5 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 24, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals | -1.5 / 7.5 | Won 2-1 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 23, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals | -1.5 / 7.5 | Won 2-0 | Won / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | @Atlanta Braves | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 1-3 | Won / Under |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Atlanta Braves | -1.5 / 9.5 | Won 5-3 | Won / Under |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Atlanta Braves | -1.5 / 9.5 | Lost 2-3 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Atlanta Braves | -1.5 / 8.5 | Won 5-3 | Won / Under |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @San Francisco Giants | -1.5 / 7.5 | Won 0-2 | Won / Under |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @San Francisco Giants | -1.5 / 7.5 | Won 3-4 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @San Francisco Giants | -1.5 / 7.5 | Won 1-5 | Won / Under |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @San Francisco Giants | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 0-2 | Won / Under |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @San Francisco Giants | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 3-4 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @San Francisco Giants | -3.5 / 6.5 | Won 0-2 | Lost / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | @Pittsburgh Pirates | -2.5 / 8.5 | Won 5-4 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | @Pittsburgh Pirates | -2.5 / 8.5 | Won 4-3 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | @Pittsburgh Pirates | -2.5 / 8.5 | Won 4-0 | Won / Under |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | @Pittsburgh Pirates | +2.5 / 8.5 | Won 5-4 | Won / Over |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | @Pittsburgh Pirates | +2.5 / 8.5 | Won 4-3 | Won / Under |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Los Angeles Dodgers | @Pittsburgh Pirates | -1.5 / 9.5 | Won 5-4 | Lost / Under |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates | @Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 9.5 | Lost 6-8 | Lost / Over |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates | @Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 8.5 | Won 9-8 | Won / Over |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Pittsburgh Pirates | @Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 8.5 | Lost 3-12 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Pittsburgh Pirates | @Los Angeles Dodgers | +1.5 / 6.5 | Won 5-3 | Won / Over |
Snell’s Return Is Changing Everything for LA
Blake Snell has posted a 3.60 ERA since coming back, but the surface number undersells how dominant he’s looked. He’s punching out hitters at a 12.0-per-nine clip over his last two outings, and a lineup that struggles against left-handed spin — which describes plenty of Pittsburgh’s roster — is exactly the matchup he wants. Offensively, the Dodgers don’t need much margin for error with Shohei Ohtani (.291/.390/.552, 30 home runs) setting the tone at the top, backed by Freddie Freeman hitting .300 and Max Muncy’s 26 homers providing the thump in the middle of the order.
Pittsburgh isn’t without pieces of its own. Oneil Cruz has 16 home runs and remains one of the most dangerous power threats in the league when he connects, and Bryan Reynolds is quietly having a solid year at .263 with 15 homers and a .430 slugging mark. The problem is depth — Pittsburgh’s lineup has too many soft spots for a team trying to slow down this Dodgers offense over nine innings.
The Pirates have been outscored 9-7 combined over the first two games of this series against a Dodgers team missing Tyler Glasnow, Will Smith, and Edwin Diaz.
That’s the most telling stat in this series. Los Angeles doesn’t even have its full roster right now, with Glasnow (back), Andy Pages (hand fracture) and Diaz (neck) all out, and they’ve still found a way to grind out two straight one-run wins. It speaks to the overall talent gap between these two clubs at this point in the season.
Pittsburgh’s bullpen has also been stretched thin after Friday’s extra-inning marathon, which could matter if this game turns into a close, low-scoring affair late.
Bachar Faces a Steep Learning Curve at Dodger Stadium
Lake Bachar takes the ball for Pittsburgh carrying a 3.75 ERA and a 1-2 record, numbers that reflect a young arm still adjusting to the demands of a big league rotation. Dodger Stadium is one of the tougher parks in baseball for a pitcher trying to establish himself, and doing it against a lineup stacked with former MVPs and All-Stars from top to bottom makes the assignment even harder. Mookie Betts brings postseason pedigree and pop from the shortstop spot, and Kyle Tucker adds another dangerous right-handed bat capable of turning a mistake pitch into a souvenir.
The encouraging sign for Pittsburgh is that its lineup has shown flashes of life against LA’s staff this weekend, scratching across seven runs over the first two games despite the losses. Nick Gonzales has been a steady table-setter at the top of the order, hitting well over .300 and giving the offense a chance to string together innings if the middle of the order connects behind him. But stringing together enough offense to hang with the Dodgers for a full nine innings, especially with Snell on the mound, is a tall order.
Prediction and Best Bet
Snell gets the Pirates lineup to chase enough to keep this from getting out of hand, and the Dodgers’ top of the order does enough damage to cover comfortably at home.
The pick:
- Prediction: Dodgers 6, Pirates 2
- Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5
With Snell dealing and Pittsburgh’s offense sputtering all series, the safer play is trusting Los Angeles to finish off the sweep in convincing fashion rather than needing a nail-biter.
