Baseball’s calendar is down to one game on Wednesday, and it is a big one. The Milwaukee Brewers lead the World Series three games to one and can clinch the first title in franchise history when they visit the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field at 8:00 PM ET on FOX. With a one-game slate, the best way to attack the board is to go straight at the one pitcher whose role is not in question.

That pitcher is Jacob Misiorowski, the Brewers’ ace and the likely Cy Young winner. The Rays have not named a Game 5 starter, but Milwaukee’s side of the matchup is locked in, and his numbers tell a more interesting story in October than they did all summer. Here are three pitcher props that fit what he has actually done in the playoffs.

Jacob Misiorowski Under 5.5 Strikeouts

This one feels uncomfortable at first. Misiorowski struck out 252 batters in 174.2 regular-season innings, with a strikeout rate around 38 percent. Betting against that sounds like a mistake until you look at what has happened since the calendar flipped to October.

His postseason strikeout rate has dropped to roughly 25.5 percent. In 13.1 playoff innings he has struck out 14 batters, and in World Series Game 1 he fanned just three Rays. No Brewers starter has struck out more than four batters in any game this series. Playoff lineups are more selective, and Tampa Bay has plenty of contact-first hitters, including Chandler Simpson, who walked or struck out in only about nine percent of his postseason plate appearances.

The other piece is workload. Misiorowski has not faced more than 19 batters or recorded more than 15 outs in any of his other three playoff starts, so there is not much room to pile up strikeouts across seven innings. The line is available at about -111 at FanDuel, a fair price for a number he has cleared only once all October. If you want to compare prices across books, the live MLB odds page is a quick way to do it.

Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 Earned Runs

The earned-run line is where Misiorowski’s season-long dominance still holds up. He finished 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP, and he has allowed fewer than 1.5 earned runs in six of his last seven starts. In World Series Game 1 he gave up just one run on four hits over five innings in a 3-2 Milwaukee win.

Across three playoff starts he is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA, and the Brewers have won all three games. The caution is that the walks are creeping in, with five free passes in that span, and Rays hitters are batting .242 collectively against him in his career. That is why the price is steep, around -180 at BetMGM. You are paying for the safest of the three picks, and it is also the one with the strongest recent track record.

It also helps that Tampa Bay is scrambling for pitching. The Rays used Nick Martinez in relief in Game 4 and may turn to a bullpen game or a short-rest starter. A patched-together staff makes it harder for the Rays to keep the game close, which means fewer high-leverage innings where Misiorowski has to work around trouble.

Misiorowski Hits Allowed and Outs Recorded

The third angle is a pair of related props, and it comes with a note of honesty: sportsbooks adjust these lines close to first pitch, so check your book for the posted number. In Game 1, the market had Misiorowski at 16.5 outs recorded and 3.5 hits allowed, and Game 5 will likely sit near those figures.

Here is why that matters. Misiorowski has allowed four or more hits in all three of his playoff starts, 13 hits in 13.1 innings in total. That is a lot of traffic for a pitcher who allowed so few baserunners in the regular season. Put that next to his short leashes, never more than 15 outs in his other three playoff starts, and it supports a lean toward the Under on outs recorded and the Over on hits allowed if the numbers land near those Game 1 levels.

One thing to watch is the Brewers’ bullpen, which was heavily used in Game 4. That could push Milwaukee to give Misiorowski a longer look, so confirm the posted line and the late news before you bet. If the outs number climbs to 17.5 or higher, the Under gets even more attractive. If you need a new account to shop the number, our DraftKings promo code page lays out the current welcome offer.

Lock These In

All three of these plays come down to one idea: Misiorowski is still elite, but the October version of him is more hittable and gets pulled sooner than the regular-season version. The strikeout Under is the sharpest read, the earned-runs Under is the safest, and the hits and outs prop is the one to price-check before you fire.

Lines move fast on a one-game slate, so confirm the numbers before you bet, and please wager responsibly.