Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: Zack Wheeler Faces a Miami Team Stuck in a Skid

Two teams stuck in the same ugly stretch collide at loanDepot park, and only one of them has Zack Wheeler on the mound to snap out of it.

Quick take:

• Pick: Phillies -1.5
• Why: Zack Wheeler’s 2.16 ERA against a Marlins offense that’s lost five straight is too big an edge to fade
• The number to watch: Wheeler has allowed a .186 opponent batting average this season

Philadelphia comes into Miami having dropped four of its last five, including back-to-back losses to the Yankees and a pair against the Dodgers, so this is hardly a Phillies team riding high. But the Marlins have it worse. Miami has lost five in a row, getting outscored in ugly fashion by San Diego and Houston during that stretch, and now they have to face the best pitcher in this series with a lineup that’s gone cold at the plate.

Why Wheeler Changes the Math on These Odds

Philadelphia opened as roughly a -164 to -181 favorite on the moneyline with a runline in the -1.5 to +1.5 range depending on the book, and Zack Wheeler is the entire reason for that gap. The right-hander is 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA and a minuscule 0.88 WHIP through 17 starts, and he was electric in his last outing against the Dodgers, tossing seven innings and allowing just two earned runs. Miami counters with Tyler Phillips, a 2-5 arm with a 3.52 ERA who’s given up 74 hits in 79.1 innings this year. The market is pricing this as a mismatch on the mound, and the numbers back that up.

Recent Form

Both clubs are trending in the wrong direction, but the underlying data shows just how much worse Miami’s swoon has been at the plate and on the mound.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Turner and Schwarber Have to Wake the Lineup Up

Philadelphia’s offense has been quiet during its skid, hitting just .226 with 7.4 hits per game over the last 10 contests, but Trea Turner has flashed signs of life, batting .297 with three home runs and 12 RBI over his last 30 games. Kyle Schwarber remains the middle-of-the-order engine — he was the first player in the majors to reach 25 home runs this season and is now up to 32 on the year with a .945 OPS, numbers that make him a threat against any Marlins arm not named Sandy Alcantara.

Miami’s lineup, by contrast, has cooled off considerably. The Marlins are hitting .250 as a team with 106 home runs, respectable marks on paper, but they’ve been shut down in five straight losses and now have to solve a pitcher who’s been nearly unhittable all year.

Zack Wheeler has held opposing hitters to a .186 batting average this season — nearly 70 points below Miami’s team average.

That gap is the whole ballgame. Wheeler doesn’t need much run support to win, and against a Marlins team that’s averaged fewer than three runs a game during its slide, he should get through six or seven innings without much stress. Miami’s saving grace is that they’ve actually been better at home than on the road this season, posting a winning record at loanDepot park even as the losing streak has piled up elsewhere.

Philadelphia’s bullpen isn’t without questions of its own. The Phillies have been dealing with a rash of injuries, including Adolis Garcia’s season-ending lat surgery and Lou Trivino’s stint on the injured list with a back issue, which has thinned out their relief options. If Wheeler goes deep into the game, though, that bullpen fatigue becomes far less relevant. Bettors weighing this one can check the latest MLB odds before first pitch.

Prediction and Best Bet

Wheeler’s track record against a Marlins offense stuck in a five-game funk is the deciding factor here. Philadelphia’s own recent form isn’t pretty, but they have the far superior arm on the mound, and that typically wins series openers like this one.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Phillies 5, Marlins 2
2. Best Bet: Phillies -1.5

Back Wheeler and the Phillies to snap their own skid at Miami’s expense, with the pitching mismatch proving too much for a Marlins lineup searching for answers.