Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs meet up tonight in what we think will be a critical game for the Atlantic Division standings. 

Florida sits in 1st at 40-22-3, holding a slight edge over 39-22-3 Toronto who is in 2nd in the Atlantic. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning in this game.

The Panthers already dominated the first meeting between these two, cruising to a 5-1 win back in November. Now, Toronto will get their chance to respond at home at Scotiabank Arena, in a game that could go a long way in shaping the division race. However, there are still 2 other chances ahead as these teams will face off again in April to wrap up the season.

Bookmakers have this game as nearly a toss-up. Florida comes in as -120 moneyline favorites, while Toronto sits at EVEN odds. It doesn’t get much closer than that when it comes to the odds. The total is set at 5.5 goals, with the over at -125 and the under at +105. 

Given the way these teams have played lately, this game could go either way, but when you take a deeper look the numbers suggest one team has a clear advantage and one of them will walk away with 2 points.

Florida’s Strong Form and Defensive Edge

The Panthers have been one of the most consistent teams in the NHL over the last few weeks.

They have won 8 of their last 10 games and they’re showing a combo of elite defensive structure and some seriously timely scoring. They aren’t the flashiest offensive team like some of the others out there, but they get the job done with a balanced attack led by Sam Reinhart, who has 32 goals and 68 points this season. Aleksander Barkov has also been a force to be reckoned with as he leads the team with 43 assists while maintaining a staggering +17 rating. This just proves how effective he is at both ends of the ice.

Goaltending has been another big factor in Florida’s success. Sergei Bobrovsky has been nothing less than rock solid all season, boasting a 27-14-2 record with a 2.51 goals-against average and a .907 save percentage. While those numbers might not scream elite, they’re not that bad and they are far more reliable than what Toronto has gotten in net this season.

Florida has also been much stronger defensively overall as they’ve allowed just 2.69 GA/G, which is among the best in the Eastern Conference.

Florida’s ability to control games defensively and limit high-danger chances has been one of the biggest contributors to their success this year. They make it a nightmare for opponents to generate quality looks, and that just might be a problem for a Toronto team that thrives on its offensive firepower.

Can the Maple Leafs Handle Florida’s Defense?

Toronto has been a tough team to figure out this season. Sure, they’ve shown flashes of being an elite contender, but inconsistency has undeniably plagued them, especially on the defensive end.

They are coming off a 6-5 OT win against Pittsburgh, but that game highlighted one of their biggest weaknesses — goaltending.

Joseph Woll has been their best option in net, but his 2.78 GAA and .905 SV% aren’t exactly inspiring and those numbers put him in the latter half of the netminders in the league. Toronto has allowed 2.95 goals per game, which isn’t terrible in itself, but when facing a team like Florida that capitalizes on defensive mistakes, those issues can become magnified.

As for their offense, the Maple Leafs still have the firepower to compete with anyone. Mitch Marner leads the team with a whopping 80 points, including 59 assists, while William Nylander has been their most dangerous goal scorer with 21 goals and 9 power-play tallies.

Toronto has also been deadly on the man advantage. They boast a power play that ranks 6th in the NHL at 24.6%. If they can draw penalties and take advantage of their chances with their PP unit, they’ll have a shot at making this game a bit more competitive.

But the big question is whether they can keep Florida off the board.

The Leafs’ PK ranks in the bottom half of the league at just 79.1%, which is a massive red flag. If they give Florida too many opportunities on special teams, this game could get away from them quickly.

What the Trends Say

The Panthers have been the better team recently. However, the trends also favor them in this matchup.

Florida has already beaten Toronto once already this season and in a dominant fashion. On top of that, they’ve won 8 of their last 10 games overall, so they’re coming in with great momentum. They have also been one of the league’s best road teams this year, sitting at 18-12-1 away from their home ice.

Toronto, of course, has been much better at home than on the road, but there’s a concerning trend that is working against them. The underdog has won in each of the last 4 Maple Leafs home games, which means Scotiabank Arena hasn’t exactly been a fortress of dominance for the Leafs. Toronto is also just 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, showing that they can get the job done, but there’s some vulnerability.

Another trend to watch is the total.

While Florida has played in a lot of lower-scoring games, Toronto’s recent matchups have gone in the exact opposite direction. 7 of their last 10 games have hit the over mark, and given the way their defense has been struggling, it wouldn’t be surprising for us to see that trend continue. However, with Florida’s ability to control play defensively, the under might not be the worst bet either. This might be the trickiest bet of the night.

Our Prediction and Best Bet

This is a tough game to call because Toronto has the offensive talent to win at home, but the defensive concerns are just too big for us to ignore.

Florida has already shown they can shut down Toronto’s attack, and with Bobrovsky in between the pipes, the Panthers have a decent edge in the net. The Panthers also have a better penalty kill, a better defensive structure, and more consistency in their recent play.

Sure, Toronto’s offense might be able to keep them in this one, but at the end of the day, Florida is the complete team and there’s no arguing that. We expect the Panthers to grind out a tough 4-2 win, taking advantage of Toronto’s weak penalty kill and shaky goaltending.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Panthers 4, Maple Leafs 2
• Best Bet: Florida on the ML

The best bet for this game is Florida moneyline at -120. The Panthers have been the more reliable team, and they match up well against Toronto’s weaknesses.