Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season provided a healthy dose of upsets, fourth quarter heroics, and outsized performances from players who were not expected to produce this year. Players like Devin Duvernay, Rex Burkhead, and others saw more of a target share or workload than we anticipated.
We attempt to make some adjustments to our player prop strategy for this Sunday. Here are our 4 best player prop bets for NFL Week 2.
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Saquon Barkley Rush Yards: OVER 74.5
Barkley has been on a comeback journey to return to full health and performance level since 2019 when he’d racked up nearly 3,500 scrimmage yards and 23 touchdowns in his first two seasons as a pro. He rushed for 164 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against a Titans defense that is missing some pieces this season but was not expected to be that porous.
The Panthers allowed the Browns to rush for over 215 yards last week and Barkley should get another 15+ carries to do his damage at home. We trust that he’ll surpass this total given that many chances.
Mitchell Trubisky Longest Completion: UNDER 33.5 Yards
Trubisky will be the second straight passer the Patriots face who is not known for pushing the ball downfield with any kind of consistency. The Dolphins longest completion against the Pats in Week 1 went for 42 yards to Jaylen Waddle.
The Steelers don’t have the WR depth in terms of players who run after the catch like Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Trubisky completed a pass for 32 yards against Cincinnati last week, and we think he’ll struggle to beat that in Week 2’s matchup against New England.
Michael Pittman Jr. Receiving Yards: OVER 64.5
Pittman averaged 67.5 yards per game in two matchups with the Jaguars in 2021, less than ideal in terms of projecting this season’s results. We’re choosing to overlook those performances given that the person throwing to him is different. Also, his 13 targets in Week 1 would only be topped by the 15 he got when the Colts played the Titans last season.
Pittman is the clear number one target for Matt Ryan and poses a threat to defenses that will prove difficult to defend. Jacksonville allowed Carson Wentz, now in Washington, to throw for 205 yards and four touchdowns last week. Pittman should benefit from a similar performance from Ryan in which he gets double-digit targets and goes well over this total.
Special: Ja’Marr Chase to have 10+ catches, 125+ yards, 1+ TDs, and Cincinnati to win @ Dallas (+1000)
Chase was targeted 16 times in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, hauling in 10 of those for catches while racking up 129 yards and scoring a touchdown. The Bengals ultimately lost in overtime, but Chase was clearly the focal point of their offense through the air even with Joe Mixon getting 27 carries.
Tee Higgins’ injury now leaves the Bengals even thinner at receiver, and it would not be shocking for Chase to get 16-20 targets while he is out. Cincinnati as a team should beat Dallas and their backup quarterback. It’s likely that Chase will be the main factor as to why in the process.
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