Notre Dame vs BYU Preview: Odds, Prediction, Best Bet

Saturday night in Provo has the kind of setup college football fans wait all season for. No. 2 Notre Dame (6-0) travels to face No. 8 BYU (5-0, 3-0 Big 12) at LaVell Edwards Stadium, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. It is a matchup of two unbeaten teams, two top-10 defenses and two quarterbacks who have been playing some of the best football in the country. If you are newer to college football or just want a clear picture of what makes this game so big, here is everything you need before kickoff.

The Line: Why Notre Dame Is a Double-Digit Favorite

Oddsmakers have Notre Dame as roughly a 10.5-point favorite, with the line opening at Notre Dame -10 and settling at -10.5 at most books. The total sits around 46.5 points, and the moneyline is roughly Notre Dame -400 and BYU +320. In plain English, that means the market expects the Irish to win by more than a touchdown and a field goal, and a bet on Notre Dame to simply win would require risking $400 to win $100.

That number is not just about reputation. Notre Dame has won 16 straight games, and each of those wins came by double digits. That kind of consistency is exactly what bettors are pricing in. Still, 10.5 points is a big number against a ranked, undefeated home team, and BYU has been a strong bet this season. The Cougars are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games, while Notre Dame is 3-2 against the spread over the same stretch. If you want to compare prices before the game, our live NCAAF odds page is a handy starting point.

Two Elite Defenses and a Backfield Problem for BYU

The easiest way to understand this game is to start with the defenses. Notre Dame is allowing just 11.0 points per game, and its run defense has been suffocating, holding opponents to 2.1 yards per carry and 58.3 rushing yards per game. BYU is not far behind, giving up 13.4 points per game and 2.9 yards per carry. These are two of the best rush defenses in the country, so points may not come easily for either side.

The bigger issue sits in BYU’s backfield. Running back LJ Martin, the 2025 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, will miss his second straight game, and Sione Moa is out for the season. In last week’s 24-10 win over Iowa State, no BYU running back gained more than 21 yards, so quarterback Bear Bachmeier carried the offense. The sophomore threw for 329 yards and ran for 109 more, and BYU piled up 506 total yards. That worked against Iowa State, but Notre Dame’s front is a very different test.

On the other side, Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is having a standout season, completing 71 percent of his passes, averaging 9.6 yards per attempt and throwing 16 touchdowns against one interception. Receivers Jordan Faison and Micah Gilbert have both topped 375 receiving yards, and Jonaz Walton ran for 181 yards in last week’s 58-7 rout of Stanford. The Irish scored on 10 of 11 drives in that game, not counting kneel-downs. BYU’s defense is good, but it has struggled with tackling, which is where Notre Dame’s depth at running back and receiver could create big plays. For the bigger picture, check the latest CFB Championship odds, since a win here would be a huge boost to either team’s playoff hopes.

A Short but Spicy History Between the Two

This is a series that has not been played often. Notre Dame leads the all-time series and has won every meeting since 2005, including a 28-20 win in Las Vegas in 2022 that remains BYU head coach Kalani Sitake’s only loss to the Irish as a head coach. BYU’s most famous win in the series came in South Bend in 2004, a 21-14 upset in a game Sitake played in as a freshman fullback. Saturday is the first game of a two-year home-and-home series and the first top-10 matchup in the history of LaVell Edwards Stadium. BYU has also won 13 of its last 14 games at home, so the Cougars will have a loud crowd behind them.

Prediction and Best Bet

Notre Dame is the better team on paper and the more balanced roster, especially with BYU down its top two running backs. But two strong defenses, a slower expected pace and a thin Cougars ground game all point toward a lower-scoring game than the market might expect. Notre Dame should find enough big plays to win, but a 10.5-point margin is steep against a defense that has allowed just 44 total points in three Big 12 games.

• Prediction: Notre Dame 27, BYU 17
• Best Bet: Under 46.5 total points

With two top-10 scoring defenses, two elite run defenses and BYU’s offense leaning heavily on one quarterback, the Under is the cleanest way to play this game. As always, bet responsibly and check our responsible gambling page if you need resources.