For the second straight week, the results of both the spread and totals in NFL action finished with the same record, this time with a final tally of 7-7-1. Vegas has started to claw its way back toward balanced results for both favorites and over bettors, but games going under the point total still stand at 69-53-1 for the 2022 season.
Those betting strictly underdogs in every game this season would also have a winning record of 66-53-3. Both under and underdog bettors would be winning at above a 55% rate for the season at the halfway point.
Our best bets went 2-1 in Week 8, pushing our record just over the .500 mark at 14-13. The Giants and Seahawks played under the total of 44.5 in Seattle’s big victory at home, and the Cowboys handled the Bears easily thanks to a big day from Tony Pollard and a defensive score from Micah Parsons.
Our loss came as the Falcons and Panthers scored more than 70 combined points, including 34 points in the fourth quarter alone. For Week 9, there are six teams on a bye leaving us with fewer games to choose from. We dug into these matchups and present our best bets below.
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Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears: UNDER 44.5
Best Available Odds: -110 at DraftKings
The Bears are losing key defensive players left and right and face a Miami Dolphins team with two of the best wide receivers in the NFL this Sunday. It feels like a recipe for a lot of money coming in on the Dolphins and the over on a seemingly lower point total.
However, outside of a fourth-quarter explosion against Baltimore in Week 2, the Dolphins are averaging 22 points per game in four of their five wins this year with Tua Tagovailoa as the starter. The Bears are scoring roughly 19 points per game themselves on top of being a run-heavy offense.
As a team, Chicago has 30 more carries than passing attempts this season, the most in the NFL. When you combine a misplaced public perception of the away team with a weather forecast that includes wind gusts up to 25 mph, we will run to the window to place this under bet.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots: UNDER 39.5
Best Available Odds: -107 at PointsBet
These two teams have scored a combined 62 points in their last two games, and are struggling to find a consistent offensive rhythm with their current personnel. Both are in somewhat of a quarterback purgatory and are playing behind offensive lines that are handicapping their abilities to score.
Indianapolis is 31st in pass block win rate through Week 8, while New England is 31st in run block win rate. In what could be a sloppy, tightly contested game, we’re going under the total.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars +2
Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings
On paper, the Raiders are not a team that should be favored on the road in just about any environment in 2022. They are dead last in the NFL in sacks and takeaways for the 2022 season and are 0.5 net yards per play worse than the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has underperformed relative to expectations this season with a league-worst 2-6 record against the spread, but they’re top 10 in the NFL in spread margin this season compared to the Raiders, who are in the bottom 10. We anticipate a correction this week and will back the Jags at home.
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