Week 3 NFL Player Props Guide: Top Picks and Predictions for Sunday, September 22
Football fans are chomping at the bit for Week 3 to get started after a stellar Monday Night Football game a few days ago. Some of the top matchups this week include Eagles at Saints, Ravens at Cowboys, and Chiefs at Falcons. That’s enough top tier action to keep folks glued to their screens from noon till midnight on Sunday.
Slide into the NFL Week 3 slate in style after checking out our player props guide! Our industry insider gives his top picks for Sunday, September 22! Enjoy the games and let’s cash some tickets.
Drake London (ATL) Under 5.5 Receptions (-125)
KC at ATL: 8:20 PM EDT on NBC
This is an overreaction if I’ve ever seen one! Oddsmakers posted London’s receptions number at 4.5 last week against Philly but have raised it to 5.5 against Kansas City. I get that London had a great game against the Eagles, but most of his stats were racked up on Atlanta’s final drive of the game.
If Saquon Barkley makes that routine reception for Philly, London would have had a mediocre evening, and this line would have come out at 4.5 again this week. I think the former USC star has a fantastic skill set, but he has a tough matchup waiting for him on Sunday Night Football.
Trent McDuffie will be matched up with London and, for my money, he’s the best cornerback in the business right now. T-Mac may only be 5’11”, but you’d never know it by how he plays. His PFF rating is almost 80 this season after being at 82.9 a season ago. I also expect Atlanta to give Bijan Robinson a ton of carries, so let’s play the Under here on London!
Alvin Kamara (NO) Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-101)
NO at PHI: 1:00 PM EDT on FOX
Bow Howdy, here’s a scary prop that may require a double shot of Pepto Bismol just to calm your nerves. I’ve always had a theory that you can get could value by playing star players to go under their respective prop lines.
I picked this up at Fanatics at 35.5 when every other sportsbook in the world has it posted at 32.5, so right off the bat we have around a 10% edge against the rest of the market. Three yards may not sound like a lot but trust me when I tell you that every yard matters in this crazy racket known as prop betting.
Kamara has had a terrific start to 2024, but he’s done most of his damage on the ground instead of catching passes. Derek Carr is only targeting Kamara 4 times per game so far, which is in our favor. Yes, Kamara did go over this line last week, but only because one of his receptions went for 57 yards.
Elijah Moore (CLE) Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
NYG at CLE: 1:00 PM EDT on FOX
Moore’s an interesting case. He has all of the tools to be a great wideout, but he’s never been able to get back to the production he had with the Jets during his rookie season. The former Ole Miss Rebel is getting a fair number of targets, but most of them have been short slants and wide receiver screens.
So far this season, Moore is only averaging 5.9 yards per reception. His receptions prop line is 3.5 and is juiced heavily toward the Under. With a projection of around 3 catches against the Giants, Moore will almost need to double his average yards per reception to go over this prop line.
New York’s secondary has been a mess so far, but I actually like how rookie Andru Phillips matches up against Moore. Phillips has a PFF grade of 77.5 through 2 games and I love that he’s a couple of inches bigger than Moore. Look for Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy to run most of the deep routes in this one. Give me yet another Under!
Mike Noblin
Senior Sports Betting Contributor
Mike Noblin is a seasoned handicapper and the lead sports betting author at Hello Rookie. Mike has been involved with the industry for two decades, and has worked as a full time analyst and writer for the past three years. He covers a wide variety of sports, including the NFL, College Football, NBA, College Basketball, and MLB.
