NFL Best Bets for Sunday, October 22

Week 6 was another productive one for our NFL best bets. The Houston Texans were out-gained and out-snapped by the visiting New Orleans Saints and benefited from multiple missed field goals.

They forced a pair of turnovers and prevented red zone scores to win by a touchdown at home as one-point dogs. Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good.

We won our second play of the day when the Eagles and Jets played to a 20-14 final score, not threatening the total of 41.5. Another 2-0 week brings our record on the season to 8-4-1.

Six teams have a bye in Week 7, tied for the most that will happen in 2023 with Week 13. Parity was the theme of Week 6, and that has carried over into the lines for this Sunday.

11 of the 15 games last week had winning margins within one score, and both undefeated teams went down in games where they were favored by more than a touchdown on the road. Seven of the ten afternoon games this Sunday have spreads of three points or fewer, with road teams favored in half of them.

Buffalo was in the same spot as San Francisco and Philadelphia last weekend. They are 8.5-point favorites at New England in a game they should have no business losing on paper.

Josh Allen missed time in the Bills’ Sunday night win because of a possible head injury, but his shoulder has him listed as questionable ahead of this game. He is still expected to play, regardless.

We have our latest batch of best bets ready for this weekend’s slate and look forward to another football Sunday.

These teams have averaged fewer than 34 combined points across their last three meetings, including a 20-20 tie and a 20-12 Giants win in two games last season.

The Commander defense has been vulnerable this season, allowing 30+ points to four of six opponents and the sixth-most passing yards per game in the league. The good news for them is that they’re playing the Giants.

It’s unclear which quarterback will suit up for New York, but that hasn’t mattered this season. The Giants allow sacks on 14% of their QB dropbacks and are 29th in the NFL in average yards per pass attempt.

Washington hasn’t been generating the same amount of pressure this season aside from Chase Young when he’s been healthy, but with Saquon Barkley back, it’s feasible the Giants rely on their ground game more. That means a running clock, and we don’t see these teams combining for 40 points if there isn’t much progress through the air.

Steelers @ Rams: OVER 43.5 (FanDuel)

If you’re a regular reader of these picks, and hopefully you are because it would have been profitable, this may look like an error. This pick represents our first OVER of the season and includes the Pittsburgh Steelers, who put up 15.8 points per game.

Their 30th-ranked scoring offense has not instilled confidence in anyone wagering on the Steelers, yet this is the spot we picked. The total in this game opened at 42 points and has only climbed since then.

Some books have 44.5 listed, so we’re locking in 44 now. Neither team has been impressive defensively, and both give up more than 120 yards on the ground week-to-week.

The Rams’ passing attack ranks sixth in the league and, with the volume of passes they throw, could reproduce the Texans’ success against this unit.

We are fading the bettors playing against a team like Pittsburgh getting to this total and taking the risk in a game that could be a big swing and miss.