NFL Best Bets for Sunday, December 10

A second straight winning week has stretched our record for the 2023 season to 15-13-2. As unpredictable as this year has been, we are happy with 53.5% heading into Week 14.

This week’s action represents the final time bye weeks will factor into the schedule, with Washington and Arizona getting their first rest after 13 straight game weeks. Possible playoff previews will occur when Jacksonville faces Cleveland, Seattle visits San Francisco, Buffalo travels to Kansas City to keep their hopes alive, and in a marquee Sunday night game between Philadelphia and Dallas, two top NFC contenders. The action concludes with a Monday night doubleheader, the first since Week 3.

Multiple teams have recently been added to the ranks of those with quarterback injury troubles this season. The Jaguars and Steelers learned that their starters, Trevor Lawrence and Kenny Pickett, suffered high-ankle sprains in Week 13. Lawrence has not yet been ruled out for Sunday’s date with the Browns, although it appears unlikely he’ll suit up.

However, Pickett has already undergone a procedure to, as an ESPN article put it, speed up his recovery timeline. Finally, New Orleans could rely on Jameis Winston to start following Derek Carr’s second concussion in three games.

There are two matchups with totals below 31 points currently and one above 50 with a wide range in between. According to BetIQ, only five games since 2003 have closed with a total of 31. That number could increase by 40% this week.

The 52-point total in Dallas would tie for the fourth-highest in the league this season. The Eagles and Cowboys combined for 51 points during their first meeting this year in Philly.

There are four regular season weeks left, and we’re prepared to make the most of them. With that in mind, we’ve got a pair of best bets to wager on for Week 14.

Panthers @ Saints: OVER 37.5

During a week with numerous point totals in the 30s, this game stands out as suitable for taking advantage of significant line movement early in the week.

The Saints’ offense has improved immensely at home during the middle part of the season. After managing 25 total points and 274 yards per game on offense in their first two games at the Super Dome this year, New Orleans has averaged 25.3 points and more than 350 yards of total offense in three home contests since.

Jameis Winston is the likely starter if Derek Carr remains in concussion protocol, which we like to work in our favor. Carr also may not be 100% due to lingering shoulder and rib injuries. Whether via scoring points or committing turnovers, more Jameis is better for over bettors.

Additionally, the Panthers’ offense posted their third-most rushing yards of the season and seemed determined to establish the run during their first week without former coach Frank Reich. New Orleans ranks 27th in opponent yards per rush and 24th in rushing defense this season, so they should continue that progress in Week 14.

We like these NFC South foes to force their way over this total on Sunday afternoon.

6-point Teaser: Broncos +9 / Bills +8 

We’re predicting this pair of games that features AFC West teams will remain close or favor the underdogs later on Sunday afternoon.

The Chargers have been out-gained by an average of 60 yards per game offensively over their last five. They are 29th in total defense and 20th or worse in passing and rushing averages allowed to opposing teams.

Denver is similarly shaky by some measures, ranking 31st in total defense and 29th in scoring D, but their worst games all occurred before Week 8. We expect them to keep it close with the Chargers in SoFi Stadium.

In KC, Buffalo has their backs to the wall. Their coach is on the hot seat, their quarterback’s reliability is in question again, and there are legitimate concerns as to whether this preseason frontrunner will make a postseason appearance at all.

The Chiefs have looked uncharacteristically average many times this season, something that NFL fans have not been used to in the Reid/Mahomes era. We don’t think KC blows out Buffalo during the Bills’ last effort to keep their season alive.