Caitlin Clark almost wasn’t here for this one, and that alone tells you how much is riding on Tuesday’s clash at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Quick take:
- Pick: Indiana Fever -4.5
- Why: Indiana’s defense and depth have been the steadier hand all season, and New York is on the second night of a home-to-road turnaround after a blowout.
- The number to watch: Kelsey Mitchell’s 16 straight games with 20-plus points, a new WNBA single-season record.
Indiana enters at 20-12 and sitting second in the East, one game clear of a New York club that comes in 20-13 and hungry to close the gap. The Fever nearly played this one without their franchise cornerstone. Clark picked up her eighth technical foul of the season Saturday in a 90-86 win over the Chicago Sky — a call that would have triggered an automatic one-game suspension and forced her to sit out against the Liberty. Indiana appealed immediately, and the WNBA rescinded the technical less than two hours after the final buzzer. Clark is available, and this game is a lot more interesting for it.
Why the Market Trusts Indiana at Home
Books have Indiana as a 4.5-point favorite with the total sitting around 192.5, and the moneyline reflects a clear split — Fever near -168, Liberty around +138 to +152 depending on the book. That’s the market pricing in Indiana’s superior recent form and the fact that this is a home game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where the Fever have been one of the league’s toughest outs down the stretch.
| Tuesday, August 11 at 7:30 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| New York Liberty | 
+4.5 (-118) | 
+145 |
O 192.5 (-105) |
| Indiana Fever | 
-4.5 (-110) |
-168 | 
U 190.5 (-112) |
Recent Form
Both teams arrive with momentum, but the shape of that momentum looks different up close.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | -19.5 / 173.5 | Won 111-71 | Won / Over |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -10.5 / 181.5 | Won 95-83 | Won / Under |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -10.5 / 181.5 | Won 92-86 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -16.5 / 181.5 | Won 95-83 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 1, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | -9.5 / 174.5 | Won 92-94 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 31, 2026 | @Las Vegas Aces | +6.5 / 197.5 | Lost 104-99 | Won / Over |
| Jul 29, 2026 | @Los Angeles Sparks | -5.5 / 197.5 | Won 109-113 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Chicago Sky | -6.5 / 194.5 | Won 95-94 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 21, 2026 | @Dallas Wings | -7.5 / 178.5 | Won 98-99 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | @Indiana Fever | -10.5 / 193.5 | Lost 108-88 | Lost / Over |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | @Chicago Sky | -6.5 / 185.5 | Won 86-90 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | +4.5 / 189.5 | Lost 84-86 | Won / Under |
| Aug 2, 2026 | @Minnesota Lynx | +7.5 / 209.5 | Lost 108-100 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 1, 2026 | @Portland Fire | -9.5 / 189.5 | Won 98-112 | Won / Over |
| Jul 29, 2026 | @Seattle Storm | -17.5 / 193.5 | Won 95-105 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | -12.5 / 185.5 | Won 123-88 | Won / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | New York Liberty | +10.5 / 193.5 | Won 108-88 | Won / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | New York Liberty | +4.5 / 189.5 | Won 108-88 | Won / Over |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -11.5 / 208.5 | Won 110-107 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | -2.5 / 166.5 | Lost 75-88 | Lost / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Indiana Fever | @New York Liberty | +10.5 / 193.5 | Won 108-88 | Won / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Indiana Fever | @New York Liberty | +4.5 / 189.5 | Won 108-88 | Won / Over |
| Jun 7, 2026 | New York Liberty | @Indiana Fever | -3.5 / 174.5 | Won 83-75 | Won / Under |
| Jul 23, 2025 | New York Liberty | @Indiana Fever | -9.5 / 163.5 | Won 98-84 | Won / Over |
| Jul 16, 2025 | New York Liberty | @Indiana Fever | -9.5 / 163.5 | Won 98-77 | Won / Over |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @New York Liberty | +3.5 / 169.5 | Won 102-88 | Won / Over |
| May 24, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @New York Liberty | +4.5 / 174.5 | Lost 88-90 | Won / Over |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Indiana Fever | @New York Liberty | +10.5 / 174.5 | Won 83-78 | Won / Under |
| Jun 2, 2024 | New York Liberty | @Indiana Fever | -14.5 / 168.5 | Won 104-68 | Won / Over |
| May 18, 2024 | New York Liberty | @Indiana Fever | -13.5 / 169.5 | Won 91-80 | Lost / Over |
Mitchell’s Record Streak Meets a Liberty Team Riding Its Own Roll
Kelsey Mitchell dropped 27 points in Saturday’s win at Chicago, extending her run of 20-plus-point games to 16 straight — a new WNBA single-season record. Clark matched her with 26 points and 11 assists, marking the eighth time in her career she’s posted at least 25 points, 10 assists and five made threes in a game, a feat only four other players in league history have ever accomplished. Aliyah Boston chipped in a double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds, giving Indiana three players who can all take over a game on a given night.
New York isn’t limping in, either. The Liberty have won four straight, most recently a 111-71 demolition of a short-handed Las Vegas team missing A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. Marine Johannes torched that Aces defense for a career-high 27 points on 7-of-12 shooting from three off the bench, while Jonquel Jones added 15 points and eight rebounds and Breanna Stewart chipped in 14. Before that, New York swept a home-and-home with Seattle, with Stewart and Ionescu combining for at least 15 points apiece in both wins.
Sabrina Ionescu and the Liberty are 10-9 this season in games Breanna Stewart has also played, a split that shows just how much New York’s ceiling depends on having its two stars on the floor together.
Stewart leads the Liberty in scoring at 21.3 points per game and also tops the roster in blocks and steals, making her the swing factor on both ends. Clark’s counterpart production — 21.6 points, 8.0 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game on 44.6% shooting — gives Indiana the head-to-head answer at the point of attack. That matchup, more than any other on the floor, will likely decide whether Indiana’s home crowd gets to celebrate a signature win over a conference rival.
New York’s blowout of Vegas came against a team playing without three starters, which makes it a less reliable form indicator than it looks on paper. Indiana’s win over Chicago, by contrast, came against a team fighting for its own spot and required real execution down the stretch. That’s part of why the spread leans Fever even with New York carrying the longer active win streak into Tuesday.
Depth also favors Indiana in a way that matters over 40 minutes. Mitchell and Clark form arguably the league’s most dangerous backcourt pairing right now, but Boston’s rebounding and interior presence give the Fever a third All-Star-caliber option that New York has to account for on every possession. The Liberty counter with more overall size across Stewart and Jones, yet neither team has faced a frontcourt quite like the other’s this deep into August.
Prediction and Best Bet
Clark being cleared to play tips this firmly in Indiana’s favor. The Fever have the more complete two-way roster right now, and Gainbridge Fieldhouse has been a difficult building for visitors all season. Look for Mitchell to keep her record streak alive and for Boston to control the glass against a Liberty frontcourt that will be without a true low-post stopper for stretches.
The pick:
- Prediction: Indiana Fever 98, New York Liberty 92
- Best Bet: Indiana Fever -4.5
Indiana’s depth and Mitchell’s historic scoring streak make the Fever the safer side, even against a Liberty team that’s won four straight of its own.
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