Las Vegas has been here before and won it all three times — but never down 0-2 with their floor general sidelined.
Quick take:
- Pick: Golden State Valkyries +3.5
- Why: The Aces are playing an elimination game without Jewell Loyd and Brionna Jones against a Valkyries team with all 12 players available
- The number to watch: A’ja Wilson’s 56.3 FG% in Game 3 wasn’t enough in a loss — Golden State has an answer for her even when she scores
Golden State and Las Vegas meet again Friday night at Michelob ULTRA Arena with the Valkyries’ season extending and the Aces’ season on the brink. Golden State took both games in the desert and at home to open this semifinal series, grinding out a 71-60 Game 1 win before surviving an 83-81 nail-biter in Game 2 at Chase Center. Now it’s win-or-go-home for Becky Hammon’s group, and they’ll have to do it banged up and on the road, needing three straight just to force a Game 5.
The Valkyries, who finished the regular season 32-12 as the West’s No. 2 seed, have been the superior roster through two games — not flashier, just deeper. Las Vegas finished 31-13 and has A’ja Wilson doing A’ja Wilson things, but depth has become the deciding factor as this series has worn on.
Why the Spread Keeps Shrinking on a Short-Handed Aces Team
Vegas’ live betting odds opened with the Aces favored by 3.5 and has crept as high as 4.5 at some books, with moneyline prices on Las Vegas ranging from -155 to -185 depending on the shop. That’s a lot of juice for a team that’s lost two straight and is walking into Game 3 without Jewell Loyd, who’s officially out again with the left leg injury that knocked her out of Game 1 and kept her sidelined for Game 2. Brionna Jones and Allisha Gray are also unavailable for Las Vegas, and Stephanie Talbot is questionable with her own leg issue. The market is still leaning on Wilson and home court to close the gap, but that’s a lot of absences for one MVP to cover.
| Friday, October 9 at 9:30 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Golden State Valkyries | 
+5.5 (-120) |
+180 | 
O 157.5 (-105) |
| Las Vegas Aces |
-5.5 (-105) |
-180 | 
U 156.5 (-108) |
Recent Form
Golden State’s depth has shown up directly in the box score the last two games, while Las Vegas has leaned harder and harder on its top options as the walking wounded list grows.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | -11.5 / 151.5 | Won 83-81 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | +2.5 / 161.5 | Won 71-60 | Won / Under |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Dallas Wings | -7.5 / 152.5 | Won 77-73 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @Dallas Wings | -6.5 / 159.5 | Lost 108-100 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Dallas Wings | -6.5 / 156.5 | Won 104-80 | Won / Over |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @Los Angeles Sparks | -11.5 / 155.5 | Won 75-76 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 23, 2026 | @Portland Fire | -20.5 / 153.5 | Lost 90-82 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -15.5 / 149.5 | Won 70-57 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Portland Fire | -14.5 / 156.5 | Won 82-66 | Won / Under |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @Portland Fire | -11.5 / 159.5 | Won 69-86 | Won / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Golden State Valkyries | +11.5 / 151.5 | Lost 83-81 | Won / Over |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @Golden State Valkyries | -2.5 / 161.5 | Lost 71-60 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Indiana Fever | -2.5 / 187.5 | Won 94-83 | Won / Under |
| Sep 29, 2026 | @Indiana Fever | -3.5 / 182.5 | Lost 99-89 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Indiana Fever | -4.5 / 182.5 | Won 102-85 | Won / Over |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | -31.5 / 190.5 | Won 82-100 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Los Angeles Sparks | -17.5 / 180.5 | Won 89-79 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -17.5 / 180.5 | Won 98-77 | Won / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Seattle Storm | -10.5 / 176.5 | Won 77-114 | Won / Over |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Toronto Tempo | -17.5 / 176.5 | Won 93-73 | Won / Under |
Showing 9 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | @Las Vegas Aces | -11.5 / 151.5 | Won 83-81 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | @Las Vegas Aces | +2.5 / 161.5 | Won 71-60 | Won / Under |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @Golden State Valkyries | -3.5 / 167.5 | Won 92-73 | Won / Under |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @Golden State Valkyries | -2.5 / 167.5 | Won 84-79 | Won / Under |
| May 31, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | @Las Vegas Aces | +1.5 / 167.5 | Lost 81-91 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Golden State Valkyries | @Las Vegas Aces | +5.5 / 159.5 | Lost 72-78 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 / 157.5 | Won 101-77 | Won / Over |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Golden State Valkyries | -5.5 / 156.5 | Won 104-102 | Lost / Over |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Golden State Valkyries | @Las Vegas Aces | +12.5 / 160.5 | Won 95-68 | Won / Over |
A’ja Wilson Is Still Elite — It Just Isn’t Translating to Wins
Wilson is coming off her fifth career MVP award, a record, and third straight, after averaging 26.2 points and 9.4 rebounds in the regular season. She’s been even better in the playoffs, putting up 28.8 points and 9.2 boards a night across the first two rounds, and she shot 56.3% from the floor for 24 points in Game 2’s narrow loss on Wednesday. The problem for Las Vegas isn’t Wilson — it’s everyone else. With Loyd out and Jones and Gray unavailable, the Aces have had to lean on Kaitlyn Chen and a thinned-out bench to fill minutes that used to belong to proven veterans, and it’s shown up in the score margins even in a game they nearly stole down the stretch.
Jackie Young has quietly been Las Vegas’ steadiest secondary option through this stretch, but one more scorer beyond Wilson and Young isn’t the same as a full rotation. Golden State’s coaching staff has had the luxury of mixing and matching lineups to find whatever’s working on a given night, while Hammon has been forced into lineup combinations out of necessity rather than choice.
With all 12 players on their roster available, the Valkyries have a decided depth advantage over an Aces team missing three regular rotation pieces.
Golden State’s answer has been Gabby Williams, who’s been the connective tissue for a Valkyries team that doesn’t need one superstar to beat you — it needs five players doing their job, every possession. Veronica Burton has also played through a scare of her own, drawing postgame concern from coach Natalie Nakase after Game 1 before confirming this week she was healthy enough to have returned if needed. That kind of margin for error — having players ready even when banged up — is exactly what Las Vegas doesn’t have right now.
Both games in this series have been low-scoring, defense-first battles, and Friday’s total sits at 156.5, similar to the first two. Expect another grind, not a track meet, with possessions at a premium and every rebound magnified given how thin the Aces’ frontcourt rotation has become.
Prediction and Best Bet
Las Vegas is going to throw everything at this game knowing elimination is on the line, and expect a desperate, physical atmosphere from the opening tip. But desperation alone hasn’t been enough against a Golden State team that’s controlled the swing moments in both wins so far, and the absences are too significant to paper over for 40 more minutes.
The pick:
- Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 80, Las Vegas Aces 76
- Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries +3.5
Golden State doesn’t need to win outright to cash this ticket, and a healthy, deep roster against a shorthanded Aces group in an elimination game is enough value to like the points.
