MNF Player Props for Bengals at Jaguars
The big cats will battle for superiority on Monday Night Football in Week 13, with the Jaguars welcoming the Bengals to Jacksonville for the first time since 2017. Four of the last five meetings between these clubs have occurred in Cincinnati, and the Bengals won three of those four in southwestern Ohio.
Cincy entered the season with +1000 odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy. Those hopes have evaporated with the loss of quarterback Joe Burrow to a season-ending injury suffered against Baltimore in Week 11; even the Jets have better current odds of winning the Super Bowl, according to DraftKings.
The Jags are among the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of two straight and seven of eight entering this week. They own the third-seed in the AFC and a two-game lead in the South division over Indy and Houston, who they went 3-1 against in regular season play.
Doug Pederson’s second year in Jacksonville is becoming more successful by the week, and the Jags have risen to the seventh-best odds to win the championship through 11 games. They’re tied with Detroit at +1300 currently.
Jacksonville is favored by nine points with a point total that’s fallen to 38.5. Dallas and Miami are the only favorites with wider spreads on the board this week.
T.J. Hockenson failed to reach 61 yards last week, representing our only loser during the Bears’ defeat of the Vikings on MNF. Our Monday prop plays, promos included, are 10-5 since Week 7, and we’ve got another card lined up for this contest between the Bengals and Jags.
No team in the NFL has been run on more than Cincinnati. They are 32nd in opponent rushing attempts and rush yards allowed while conceding the 2nd-most yards per carry among all teams.
Travis Etienne’s status for the week is still in question, but he logged a limited practice on Thursday, a positive indicator of his availability for Monday. We expect a heavy dose of Etienne with a side of D’Ernest Johnson throughout this matchup.
Cincinnati also struggles to get off the field defensively. They rank 27th in opponent third-down conversion rate and 30th in opponent yards per drive.
The Jaguars have the league’s third-most rush attempts and will grind down the Bengals. This would leave Lawrence in a position where he won’t do as much throwing, and we’ll play him under.
Joe Mixon OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards
Jacksonville’s win streak can be credited to an offense that’s improved throughout the year rather than their efforts to make defensive strides. The Jags allow the ninth-most yards per play and have benefited greatly from holding opponents to a 35% rate of third-down conversions.
They are 28th in pass defense overall and 23rd in opponent net yards per pass attempt, contributing to being 28th in opponent scoring rate per drive.
We’re combining the Jags’ poor defense with a Cincy offense that looks different without Burrow to justify our play on Mixon’s total. He’s seen seven targets in his last two games and hauled in them all for 75 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Mixon has eclipsed the 20-yard receiving mark in five of six games and will be the primary check-down target for Jake Browning when Josh Allen, Travon Walker, or another Jaguar applies pocket pressure. We like Mixon to surpass this number on Monday night.
Sports Betting Contributor
Nicholas brings over 10 years of sports betting and DFS experience to our team. He’s a player prop specialist who holds a degree from Penn State University. He enjoys a nice round of golf in his downtime and covers the NFL, NBA, baseball, CFB, and CBB. Mr. Berault is currently on a great run with his NFL best bets, so be sure to check those out!