Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Dallas Stars return home tonight to the American Airlines Center as indisputable favorites as they host the Minnesota Wild in what’s arguably the top NHL matchup of a light 4-game slate. Dallas opened the odds at -230 on the moneyline, and the betting market has stayed firm behind the Stars. 

With both teams pushing for playoff position in the Central Division, this game carries a bit of weight to it. Dallas sits just 2nd in the division with 92 points, while Minnesota trails by 7, trying to gain ground in 4th place and at least secure a wild card slot.

This is going to be a great game with plenty of chances for some bets. Here’s what we have for the prediction and best bet for tonight’s divisional showdown.

Odds, Recent Trends, and What’s at Stake

Dallas comes in at heavy favorites with -230 on the moneyline, with Minnesota at +175. With the puck line sitting at +125 for the Stars -1.5, and the total is 5.5 goals, juiced slightly to the over, this game might seem a little tilted, but we’re going to see how these teams have been playing to get some better insight.

The Stars are 6-2-2 in their last 10, although they’ve dropped 3 of their last 5 which is very unlike them. Meanwhile, Minnesota has caught fire lately, going 6-3-1 over its last 10, including a current 3-game winning streak which also includes a win against the Kings, one of the best teams in the West.

A big part of that streak is because the Wild’s defense has clamped down, giving up 1 goal or fewer in each of their last 3 wins.

That said, Dallas still owns the better season resume — especially at home. They’re 21-10-2 on home ice this season, and they’ve scored 3.36 goals per game compared to Minnesota’s 2.74. The American Airlines Center is one of the toughest places for any other NHL team to play this season.

Goaltending and Star Power Favor Dallas

Goaltending will undoubtedly play a big role in this one.

Filip Gustavsson has been solid for Minnesota with a stellar .917 save percentage, and he’s likely to get the start. His season has been strong, but this Dallas team puts serious pressure on the net, ranking top 5 in shot attempts and expected goals at even strength.

Jake Oettinger has a slightly lower SV% at .906, but his 32 wins and 2.54 GAA make him the go-to guy in big spots. He’ll most likely get the nod for tonight’s game. Plus, he’s much better at home than on the road.

On the offense, Matt Duchene with his 70 points, and Jason Robertson, and his 29 goals are leading the charge for the Stars. They’re backed by a blue line that allows just 2.61 goals per game. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Minnesota will lean on Matt Boldy, who leads them in goals with 23 and points with 60, but outside of him, scoring depth is a bit shaky. Kirill Kaprizov might be their X-factor, but he’s been quiet during their win streak. In fact, he’s only notched 1 goal in the last 7 games. This is a bit unusual for him and heading into Dallas most likely won’t help his chances of getting back on track.

Season Series and Matchup Outlook

This is the 3rd of 4 meetings between these division rivals.

They’ve split the first 2 — Dallas took the 1st matchup 2-1, while Minnesota won the 2nd 3-2 in an overtime thriller. That OT result came in Dallas, giving the Wild some confidence heading into this rematch.

But here’s the thing — Dallas plays better when there’s something on the line. The Stars have a chance to close the gap with Winnipeg at the top of the division with a win tonight. They’re not going to let a red-hot Wild team steal points from them at home again when they’re this close to the playoffs.

The Stars also match up well on special teams, which we think could be another big factor in this game. Their power play converts at a decent 22.4%, while Minnesota struggles on the man advantage, sitting at just 20.9%. On top of that, the Stars have the 2nd best PK unit in the NHL sitting at 84.6% while the Wild are 2nd worst with just 71.8%. If this game comes down to special teams, this might be Dallas’ best shot at running up the score.

Prediction and Our Best Bet

The Wild have looked good lately, no doubt.

They’ve defended well, gotten strong goaltending, and leaned on a few timely goals. But that recent stretch has come against teams like Buffalo and Seattle — not exactly the cream of the crop (except for the Kings, but that was in Minnesota as well).

Dallas is a different test. They’re deeper, more efficient offensively, and much tougher at home. While Minnesota is fighting for playoff relevance, Dallas is in a position to push for the division lead. That urgency, combined with their matchup advantages, makes them a strong play here. They’re going to win by more than 1 goal tonight.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Stars 4, Wild 2
• Best Bet: Stars -1.5 (+125)

We’re going for value here instead of laying -230 on the moneyline. With Dallas’s ability to finish games strong and Minnesota’s inconsistency in close matchups, we would like the Stars to win this one by 2+, even if that extra goal comes at an empty net in the final seconds.

We think this should be a fast-paced, high-stakes game — but Dallas has the edge where it matters most and they’ll secure the win and you’ll win the bet. It might not be a full night of hockey, but it’s definitely going to be a good night of hockey. Lock in those bets!