Minnesota Makes a Statement at Home: Stars vs Wild Game 3 Prediction

After splitting the first two games, the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild bring their first-round series back to Minnesota for Game 3. The puck drops at 9:30 PM ET on TNT from Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, and the home crowd is going to be ready. The Wild have already shown they can dominate at home — the only question is whether they can do it again tonight.

How We Got Here

This series has had a home-team flavor from the start, and that trend could easily continue in Game 3.

• Game 1 (Minnesota): Wild 6, Stars 1 — a dominant home performance
• Game 2 (Dallas): Stars 4, Wild 2 — Wyatt Johnston scored twice to level the series

The Wild are 46-24-12 (3rd Central, 104 points) and have been a completely different team at Grand Casino Arena compared to the road. Dallas finished the regular season at 50-20-12 (2nd Central, 112 points) and is the higher seed, but the numbers say this series is far from over.

The Goaltending Edge

The most important factor in this series might be the gap between the two starting goalies, and it heavily favors Minnesota.

Filip Gustavsson has been one of the best goalies in the league this season, posting a 2.10 GAA and .931 save percentage. His goals saved above average sits at a remarkable +31.34. Jake Oettinger has been solid for Dallas at 35 wins and a 2.59 GAA, but his .899 save percentage in the playoffs trails Gustavsson significantly. When the game tightens up and every save matters, Gustavsson gives the Wild a meaningful edge.

Tonight’s Odds

Minnesota opens as a home favorite with the total set at 6, reflecting the offensive potential on both sides.

Minnesota -128, Dallas +110. The Wild are favored on home ice, which is exactly where they should be given how they played in Game 1.

Stars Threats to Watch

Dallas is no pushover. Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Jamie Benn, and Tyler Seguin give the Stars a deep and dangerous forward group. Wyatt Johnston was the hero in Game 2 with two goals and has clearly elevated his game. Dallas went 7-3 in their final 10 regular season games and their powerplay (28.6%) is elite. Their penalty kill (85.7%) has been better than Minnesota’s (77.6%) in these playoffs — something the Wild will need to clean up.

For Minnesota, Kirill Kaprizov leads the attack alongside Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello, and Frederick Gaudreau. The Wild powerplay has been sharp at 31.5% in these playoffs, which is where they can make Dallas pay when the Stars take penalties.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Wild at home is a very different proposition from the Wild on the road. They outscored Dallas 6-1 in Game 1 at Grand Casino Arena, and the crowd factor should not be underestimated. Minnesota will be fired up after losing Game 2, and Gustavsson gives them a decided goaltending advantage that is hard to overcome in a tight playoff series.

• Prediction: Wild 4, Stars 2
• Best Bet: Wild moneyline (-128)

The Wild moneyline at -128 represents solid value. Gustavsson is the clear edge in goal, Minnesota smashed Dallas at home in Game 1, and the atmosphere in Saint Paul will push the Wild forward. Back Minnesota to retake the series lead tonight.