Minnesota Lynx vs. Toronto Tempo Prediction: Lynx Look for Season Sweep After 100-Point Outburst

The Minnesota Lynx just hung 100 points on the Toronto Tempo two nights ago, and now they get to do it again on the road with an eight-game winning streak still very much alive.

Quick take:

• Pick: Lynx -11.5
• Why: Minnesota just beat this same Tempo roster by seven two days ago and still has the league’s best record
• The number to watch: Olivia Miles’ 24 points on 9-of-17 shooting in the last meeting

Minnesota (23-6) owns the best record in the WNBA and hasn’t lost since mid-July, a stretch that includes Tuesday’s 100-93 win over these same Tempo at Target Center. Toronto (10-17) heads back home to Scotiabank Arena still hunting its first win over Minnesota this season — the Lynx have taken both meetings so far, including a 100-72 blowout back in May, and now go for the season sweep.

Toronto is in the middle of its first WNBA season as an expansion franchise, and like most first-year clubs, the results have been uneven. The Tempo have flashed real talent in stretches — particularly whenever Marina Mabrey gets going from three — but the roster simply doesn’t have the depth yet to hang with a team playing at Minnesota’s level for 40 minutes.

This is the back half of a home-and-home, and rematches like this rarely favor the team that just got run off the floor.

The Odds Haven’t Budged Much Since Tuesday

Books have Minnesota favored by 11.5 to 12.5 points depending on the shop, with the Lynx moneyline sitting around -714 to -763 and Toronto out near +470 to +496. The total has come in slightly, from 188.5 down toward 185.5 at some books, suggesting the market expects a similar defensive script to Tuesday’s game rather than another track meet. Minnesota is 20-4 straight-up this season when favored on the moneyline, and it’s covered the spread in roughly half its games as a heavy favorite — the kind of number that keeps this from being a complete lock, but the recent head-to-head trend is hard to ignore.

Thursday, July 30 at 8:10 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Minnesota Lynx	-12 (-110)	-670	O 188.5 (-104)
Toronto Tempo	+12 (-110)	+500	U 187.5 (-107)

Recent Form Says the Same Thing Twice

Minnesota has won eight straight and is 11-1 this season when it clears 93 points, which it did Tuesday. Toronto, meanwhile, has dropped four in a row and has now lost 19 of its 27 games against teams that keep it under 83 points a night — exactly what Minnesota’s defense did in the first meeting back in May.

Showing 2 of last 10 meetings

Miles and Mabrey Are Carrying Both Offenses

Rookie Olivia Miles has been the story of Minnesota’s season, averaging 19.5 points, 6.0 assists and 4.8 rebounds a night while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field. In Tuesday’s win she went for 24 points, six rebounds and eight assists, the exact kind of two-way rookie campaign that’s made her a Rookie of the Year favorite even before Napheesa Collier fully rounds into form after her long ankle rehab. On the other side, Marina Mabrey has been Toronto’s engine all year, sitting among the WNBA’s top scorers at 21.2 points per game on 39.2 percent shooting from three — she dropped 25 points in Tuesday’s loss and will need a far more efficient supporting cast around her this time to change the outcome.

Toronto’s issue isn’t Mabrey, it’s everyone else. The Tempo have been without key rotation pieces in recent weeks, and an expansion roster already thin on depth has had to lean hard on its top few scorers every night just to stay competitive. Minnesota, by contrast, is getting deeper by the week as Napheesa Collier continues working her way back from offseason ankle surgeries, giving coach Cheryl Reeve another proven scorer to lean on alongside Miles and Kayla McBride just as the stretch run approaches.

Minnesota is 11-1 this season when it scores more than 93 points, and it hit exactly that mark in Tuesday’s win over this same Toronto team.

That number matters because the path to a Tempo upset almost certainly requires holding the Lynx under their season scoring pace, something Toronto hasn’t managed in either of the first two meetings. Minnesota’s balanced scoring — with Miles, Kayla McBride and a deepening rotation around a returning Collier — makes that a tall order two days after dropping 100 on this exact opponent.

Toronto’s home crowd will be loud for a team still building its identity in year one, but crowd noise hasn’t been enough to slow this Lynx group all season. Anyone looking to get a bet down can compare markets through the live betting odds hub before tip-off.

Prediction and Best Bet

Minnesota’s defense, depth and sheer recent form make this a tough spot for Toronto to flip the script just 48 hours after a loss. Expect another comfortable Lynx win, with Mabrey keeping it from getting totally out of hand.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 96, Toronto Tempo 83
2. Best Bet: Lynx -11.5

Back the Lynx to cover again — the blueprint that worked Tuesday doesn’t figure to change much on two days’ rest.