Mets vs. Nationals Prediction: Washington’s Hot Streak Meets Connelly Early’s Return

The Mets are playing out the string with nothing but pride on the line, but the Nationals have won three straight and look like the more dangerous team walking into the final weekend of the season.

Quick take:

• Pick: Washington Nationals +104
• Why: Connelly Early’s return gives Washington a swing-and-miss starter in a game where New York’s lineup has gone cold
• The number to watch: Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 games

New York (73-87) is mathematically eliminated and playing out a lost season 20 games back in the NL East, while Washington (76-84) has quietly caught fire late, taking the series opener 7-6 on Friday to push its winning streak to three. Both clubs are essentially auditioning players for 2027 at this point, but the Nationals have the sharper roster momentum entering Saturday’s matinee at Nationals Park.

Where the Market Sees Value Late in a Lost Season

Oddsmakers still have New York as a slight favorite at -131 on the moneyline, with Washington getting +104 — check the live MLB odds for the latest line movement — largely on the strength of Jonah Tong’s rookie stuff over a Nationals rotation that’s been ravaged by injuries all year. But that line undersells how well Washington has actually played down the stretch, and it’s built more on name recognition than form. The total sits at 8.5, reflecting two bullpens — Washington’s ranked 26th in ERA at 4.66, New York’s not much better — that have leaked runs all September.

Recent Form

The gap in the two teams’ trajectories over the last two weeks is the story of this series — Washington arrives red hot while New York has stumbled to the finish line.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Connelly Early’s Return Changes the Complexion

Early is back from the 60-day injured list to make his first Nationals start since late June, and while rust is a real concern after just 2.2 rehab innings, his underlying numbers before the elbow injury were the best on Washington’s staff — a 3.44 ERA with 93 strikeouts and a 9.2 K/9 that would give him a real swing-and-miss edge over a Mets lineup that’s been shut down without much resistance the last few games. Jonah Tong, on the other hand, has scuffled since returning to the rotation, giving up nine runs over his last three starts covering 15.2 innings, including four runs on four walks in a loss to Philadelphia.

Offensively, this is Washington’s game to lose. James Wood has been red-hot since coming back from an oblique strain, hitting .297 with four steals over his last 10 games, and CJ Abrams has 33 home runs on the season with a homer in his last week of action. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor remain dangerous for the Mets, but neither has provided much thump in the final stretch, and New York’s lineup ranks near the bottom of the league in runs scored since September began.

Washington is 7-3 in its last 10 games while New York has dropped six of its last 10.

That split matters more than the moneyline suggests. Washington’s bullpen, while shaky by ERA, has found ways to hold late leads during the streak, and manager continuity down the stretch has helped younger players like Wood and Abrams settle into a groove. New York, by contrast, looks like a team checked out mentally, understandable given the 20-game deficit in the East.

It’s a short field to work with, but the trends are clear.

Prediction and Best Bet

Early’s swing-and-miss upside combined with Washington’s superior recent form and home-field comfort make the Nationals the smarter side here, even with New York technically favored on paper.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Washington Nationals 5, New York Mets 3
2. Best Bet: Washington Nationals on the moneyline

Fade the name-brand roster and side with the team playing meaningful winning baseball right now — Washington closes this one out at home.