Cooper Flagg arrives in Minneapolis fresh off a 43-point night, but he will be walking into the second-best defense in the league.
Quick take:
- Pick: Under 225.5 total points
- Why: Minnesota’s defense has controlled games all season, and Dallas is thin up front with Dereck Lively II out.
- The number to watch: Minnesota’s 104.2 defensive rating, second in the NBA.
The Dallas Mavericks (7-4) visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (8-3) at Target Center on Thursday night, with tip-off set for 8:00 PM ET on NBA TV. Both teams are on winning streaks. Dallas has won three in a row, while Minnesota has won four straight and sits 7-3 over its last 10.
The storylines are easy to find. Flagg, in his second season and still only 19, is averaging 25.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.9 assists on 50.0% shooting. Minnesota, meanwhile, keeps winning without Anthony Edwards, who has missed the last seven games with a knee injury.
Dallas’s recent run has been convincing at home. The Mavericks beat Indiana 125-122 on Monday behind Flagg’s 43 points and 10 rebounds, after a 130-93 rout of Brooklyn and a 112-100 win over Utah. The one caution is the road: Dallas is only 2-2 away from home, including a 111-112 loss at San Antonio on November 4. Minnesota is 4-1 at Target Center and just opened an eight-game homestand with a 115-100 win over Utah.
How the Market Sees Mavericks at Timberwolves
The market has made Minnesota a clear home favorite. The Timberwolves are laying 4.5 points at most books, with the game total sitting at 225.5. A few shops have pushed the spread to 5.5 and the total to 226.5, and Minnesota’s moneyline is priced well below Dallas’s. Prediction markets agree with the sportsbooks, giving the Timberwolves roughly a 63% chance to win.
| Thursday, November 12 at 8:10 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Dallas Mavericks | 
+6.5 (-114) |
+195 | 
O 226.5 (-105) |
| Minnesota Timberwolves |
-6.5 (-108) | 
-220 | 
U 225.5 (-108) |
Recent Form
Both teams arrive hot, but they got there in different ways. Here is how each one has played lately, plus how they have fared against each other.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 | Indiana Pacers | -3.5 / 233.5 | Won 125-122 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 9, 2026 | Brooklyn Nets | -12.5 / 227.5 | Won 130-93 | Won / Under |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Utah Jazz | -8.5 / 227.5 | Won 112-100 | Won / Under |
| Nov 5, 2026 | @San Antonio Spurs | +11.5 / 225.5 | Lost 112-111 | Won / Under |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Sacramento Kings | -9.5 / 227.5 | Lost 100-115 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Houston Rockets | +7.5 / 224.5 | Won 116-111 | Won / Over |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder | +2.5 / 233.5 | Won 120-96 | Won / Under |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @Miami Heat | +11.5 / 237.5 | Won 109-113 | Won / Under |
| Oct 25, 2026 | San Antonio Spurs | +15.5 / 231.5 | Lost 106-122 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Indiana Pacers | +7.5 / 242.5 | Won 105-121 | Won / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | Utah Jazz | -15.5 / 222.5 | Won 115-100 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 7, 2026 | @New Orleans Pelicans | -8.5 / 234.5 | Won 109-115 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 5, 2026 | @Houston Rockets | +4.5 / 230.5 | Won 107-117 | Won / Under |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Milwaukee Bucks | -15.5 / 234.5 | Won 112-100 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @San Antonio Spurs | +14.5 / 229.5 | Lost 121-111 | Won / Over |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Los Angeles Clippers | -6.5 / 222.5 | Won 127-101 | Won / Over |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Golden State Warriors | -5.5 / 230.5 | Lost 114-119 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @Cleveland Cavaliers | -7.5 / 231.5 | Lost 127-125 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @Cleveland Cavaliers | +4.5 / 234.5 | Lost 127-125 | Won / Over |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Orlando Magic | +1.5 / 232.5 | Won 93-115 | Won / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | Dallas Mavericks | @Minnesota Timberwolves | +3.5 / 213.5 | Lost 114-115 | Won / Over |
| Dec 25, 2024 | Dallas Mavericks | @Minnesota Timberwolves | -5.5 / 222.5 | Lost 99-105 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Dallas Mavericks | -4.5 / 220.5 | Lost 114-120 | Lost / Over |
| Feb 1, 2024 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Dallas Mavericks | -13 / 221 | Won 121-87 | Won / Under |
| Jan 8, 2024 | Dallas Mavericks | @Minnesota Timberwolves | +2.5 / 234 | Won 115-108 | Won / Under |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Dallas Mavericks | -12 / 228 | Won 118-110 | Lost / Push |
| Dec 15, 2023 | Dallas Mavericks | @Minnesota Timberwolves | +1.5 / 231 | Lost 101-119 | Lost / Under |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Dallas Mavericks | @Minnesota Timberwolves | -6 / 231.5 | Lost 121-124 | Lost / Over |
| Dec 22, 2022 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Dallas Mavericks | +2 / 227.5 | Lost 99-104 | Lost / Under |
| Dec 20, 2022 | Minnesota Timberwolves | @Dallas Mavericks | +6 / 231 | Won 116-106 | Won / Under |
Why Minnesota’s Defense Controls the Pace
The Timberwolves traded size for athleticism this summer, sending Julius Randle to Brooklyn and Naz Reid to Charlotte in the deal that brought back LaMelo Ball, and then adding Jonathan Kuminga late. The result has been a team that rebounds and defends. Minnesota collects 48.8 rebounds per game, first in the league, and allows just 107.0 points per game, sixth-best. Its point margin of +11.1 a game is the real tell, because it has been built without a healthy Edwards.
Rudy Gobert anchors all of it with 12.1 rebounds per game. Dallas is already without Lively (foot), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Sergio De Larrea (knee), and Morez Johnson Jr. is listed as day-to-day. That leaves Daniel Gafford as the only true center available, and he is averaging 9.6 points and 5.5 rebounds in 21.9 minutes. Winning the glass against Minnesota is a tall order for anyone, let alone a short-handed Dallas frontcourt.
Minnesota is allowing 107.0 points per game, and Dallas has not yet faced a defense this stingy while scoring its 114.9.
Dallas does have weapons. Kyrie Irving is scoring 22.9 points per game and hitting 39.5% from three, and P.J. Washington adds 14.6 points and 7.6 rebounds. Flagg is the reason the Mavericks are 7-4 under first-year coach Dusty May.
The matchup that matters is Ball against Irving. Ball is averaging 18.3 points and 6.0 assists, and Ayo Dosunmu has stepped into the starting backcourt to average 18.1 points, with a bump to 21.6 in Edwards’ absence.
There is also an individual matchup worth watching. Kuminga and Flagg are expected to trade defensive assignments, and Kuminga is averaging 12.3 points and 5.4 rebounds while shooting a respectable share of his looks from deep, at 1.8 threes a night. Jaden McDaniels, at 17.0 points and 6.2 rebounds, is the Minnesota wing most likely to make Flagg work for every touch.
Minnesota also has history on its side. The Timberwolves won all four meetings last season, including a 124-94 win in Dallas on March 30. That is a long way from a coin flip.
Prediction and Best Bet
Minnesota should win this game at home, and the Wolves have enough defense and rebounding to cover a number in the neighborhood of five. The better angle, though, is the total. Dallas has to score against a top-two defense with a thin frontcourt, and Minnesota is built to grind rather than race. Flagg may well put up another big line, but a slower game that stays in the low 110s for Minnesota and the low 100s for Dallas clears the Under comfortably.
The pick:
- Prediction: Timberwolves 111, Mavericks 102
- Best Bet: Under 225.5 total points
Anyone looking to back the Under can compare current offers with a DraftKings promo code before placing a wager, and you can track every line move on the live NBA odds page.
