The Liberty have won three straight and are getting a home underdog price against the team that just beat them nine days ago — that’s the kind of number Vegas bettors love to fade.
Quick take:
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces +9.5
- Why: The Aces are 20-9 as favorites but have been live dogs in their last few road trips, and this line is wide for a season series that’s been split down the middle.
- The number to watch: A’ja Wilson is averaging 26.6 points and 9.8 rebounds a night — nearly 3 points higher than her career scoring average.
Las Vegas Aces (22-10) head to Brooklyn to face the New York Liberty (19-13) on Sunday at Barclays Center, with tip-off set for 12:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Aces sit third in the West, while the Liberty are fourth in the East — but neither team’s positioning tells the full story of a rivalry that’s been split razor-thin all year.
New York enters on a three-game winning streak, having knocked off Seattle twice in the last week and survived a nail-biter in Phoenix. Las Vegas, meanwhile, dropped its most recent outing 98-87 at Minnesota after riding a stretch of tight, competitive finishes against Atlanta and Indiana. The season series between these two is tied 1-1, and the last meeting on July 30 saw the Aces steal a 104-99 road win at Michelob Ultra Arena — snapping what had been a run of Liberty dominance in the head-to-head.
Why New York Is Such a Heavy Home Favorite
The Liberty have been installed as sizable favorites, with moneyline prices in the -425 to -476 range depending on the BetMGM book, and a spread that’s settled around New York -9.5. That’s a notable number for a game between two teams separated by three wins in the standings — and it reflects New York’s recent form and home-court advantage (10-5 at Barclays Center this season) more than any decisive talent gap.
| Tuesday, August 11 at 7:30 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| New York Liberty | 
+4.5 (-118) | 
+145 |
O 192.5 (-105) |
| Indiana Fever | 
-4.5 (-105) |
-170 |
U 191.5 (-110) |
Bettors checking live odds will see market money has leaned heavily toward the Liberty, but the spread itself tells a more interesting story — Las Vegas is 17-16 against the spread on the season, and this is just the fourth time all year Vegas has been sent off as an underdog. Value hunters have taken notice: Las Vegas is getting real backing at +9.5, and New York is just 1-4 against the spread in its last five games despite winning outright.
Recent Form
The Liberty’s win streak looks better on the scoreboard than it does against the number, while the Aces have been competitive even in a loss. Here’s how both sides stack up.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | @New York Liberty | +19.5 / 173.5 | Lost 111-71 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 8, 2026 | @Minnesota Lynx | +8.5 / 189.5 | Lost 98-87 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 6, 2026 | @Indiana Fever | -4.5 / 189.5 | Won 84-86 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 3, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | +2.5 / 183.5 | Won 87-109 | Won / Over |
| Aug 1, 2026 | @Chicago Sky | -5.5 / 175.5 | Lost 84-83 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 31, 2026 | New York Liberty | -6.5 / 197.5 | Won 104-99 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Portland Fire | -15.5 / 181.5 | Won 98-83 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 22, 2026 | @Washington Mystics | -2.5 / 172.5 | Lost 100-99 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 21, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -18.5 / 196.5 | Won 83-109 | Won / Under |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Indiana Fever | -4.5 / 181.5 | Lost 75-109 | Lost / Over |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | -19.5 / 173.5 | Won 111-71 | Won / Over |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -10.5 / 181.5 | Won 95-83 | Won / Under |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -10.5 / 181.5 | Won 92-86 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -16.5 / 181.5 | Won 95-83 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 1, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | -9.5 / 174.5 | Won 92-94 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 31, 2026 | @Las Vegas Aces | +6.5 / 197.5 | Lost 104-99 | Won / Over |
| Jul 29, 2026 | @Los Angeles Sparks | -5.5 / 197.5 | Won 109-113 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Chicago Sky | -6.5 / 194.5 | Won 95-94 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 21, 2026 | @Dallas Wings | -7.5 / 178.5 | Won 98-99 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | @Indiana Fever | -10.5 / 193.5 | Lost 108-88 | Lost / Over |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | New York Liberty | @Las Vegas Aces | -19.5 / 173.5 | Won 111-71 | Won / Over |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @New York Liberty | -6.5 / 197.5 | Won 104-99 | Lost / Over |
| Jun 30, 2026 | New York Liberty | @Las Vegas Aces | -6.5 / 174.5 | Won 93-85 | Won / Over |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @New York Liberty | -2.5 / 177.5 | Lost 76-87 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 14, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @New York Liberty | -2.5 / 171.5 | Won 83-77 | Won / Under |
| Jul 9, 2025 | New York Liberty | @Las Vegas Aces | -4.5 / 165.5 | Won 87-78 | Won / Under |
| May 17, 2025 | New York Liberty | @Las Vegas Aces | -3.5 / 169.5 | Won 92-78 | Won / Over |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Las Vegas Aces | @New York Liberty | -2.5 / 166.5 | Lost 62-76 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Las Vegas Aces | @New York Liberty | -3.5 / 163.5 | Won 95-81 | Won / Over |
| Oct 1, 2024 | New York Liberty | @Las Vegas Aces | -3.5 / 164.5 | Won 88-84 | Won / Over |
A’ja Wilson vs. A Liberty Frontcourt Playing Shorthanded
A’ja Wilson has been nothing short of dominant, averaging 26.6 points, 9.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists a game this season while shooting better than 50% from the floor — numbers that would represent a career year for almost anyone else in the league. Jackie Young has quietly been just as important, running the Aces’ offense at a career-best clip with strong assist numbers over her last 10 games and providing a second scoring option that forces defenses to pick their poison.
New York counters with Breanna Stewart, who dropped 28 points on 12-for-22 shooting in the win over Seattle on Wednesday and is averaging 21.6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists on the season. But the Liberty may be without key frontcourt depth — Satou Sabally remains in concussion protocol after missing Monday’s game, and Leonie Fiebich is day-to-day with a foot issue. If either sits Sunday, New York’s rotation gets thinner against a Vegas frontline that’s been the best in the league all year.
Wilson has scored 20-plus points in 17 games this season, including eight of her last nine appearances.
That kind of consistency against a Liberty defense that’s already stretched by injury questions is exactly the matchup edge that makes the Aces’ spread number look generous. New York’s size can still bother most teams inside, but a diminished frontcourt rotation trying to control Wilson for 40 minutes is a tall order — literally and figuratively.
Prediction and Best Bet
New York’s three-game streak and Stewart’s recent scoring surge make the Liberty the safer straight-up pick at home, especially with ABC’s national spotlight and a building that’s rocking on a Sunday afternoon. But this line has drifted into value territory for Las Vegas, and the Aces have shown all season they don’t need to win outright to cash tickets.
The pick:
- Prediction: New York Liberty 91, Las Vegas Aces 85
- Best Bet: Las Vegas Aces +9.5
Wilson and Young give the Aces enough firepower to keep this one competitive into the fourth quarter, and a double-digit Liberty cover feels unlikely against a team that’s beaten New York twice in the last three meetings.
