The MLB Division Series are underway, and three aces are on the mound today in spots that scream strikeouts. From a Cy Young favorite making his first career postseason start to a two-time Cy Young winner looking to set the tone for a new team, Saturday’s slate is loaded with swing-and-miss stuff.

All three of these strikeout overs lean on a mix of elite season-long production and favorable matchup history. Here’s why each one is worth a look before first pitch.

Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 Strikeouts

Misiorowski has been the best pitcher in baseball this season, and it isn’t particularly close. The Brewers righty finished 16-5 with a microscopic 1.80 ERA, leading all of MLB in strikeouts with 252 over 174.2 innings — an average of 8.4 strikeouts per start. That kind of swing-and-miss volume makes an 8.5 strikeout line look conservative on paper for a pitcher who’s cleared that number in the majority of his starts this year.

He’s also been here before against this exact opponent. Misiorowski faced the Padres back in May and carved them up for 10 strikeouts over seven shutout innings. San Diego’s lineup hasn’t fundamentally changed its approach since, and Milwaukee’s ace gets a full, normal workload in a Game 1 start at home — not the stretched, limited-pitch-count outings he had late in September.

Context matters here too: the Brewers are the heaviest favorites of any Division Series opener, and that kind of gap between the top of a rotation and a wild-card opponent historically produces exactly the type of outing where a starter is allowed to go deep and rack up strikeouts without an early hook.

Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Skubal gets the ball in Game 1 of the NLDS for the Dodgers against the Braves, and the matchup history lines up beautifully with the over. Across his career meetings with Atlanta, Skubal has averaged 7.0 strikeouts per start — clearing 6.5 strikeouts in 100% of those outings. That’s a small sample, but it’s a meaningful one against a lineup that has given him trouble finding holes in before.

The season-long number backs it up. Skubal is averaging 7.15 strikeouts per game, and his most recent form has been exactly what you want heading into a playoff start — he struck out 10 over seven scoreless innings in his last outing before the postseason. He’s also no stranger to the stage: across his last two postseasons, Skubal owns a sub-2.10 ERA with elite strikeout totals in nearly every start.

Setting him up as the Game 1 starter also means the Dodgers can lean on him for length, since it puts him on track for a potential Game 5 on full rest. Expect Dave Roberts to let him work deep into this one rather than play matchups early, which only helps the strikeout total climb.

Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Messick has quietly put together a strong first full season, racking up 193 strikeouts in 186.1 innings for Cleveland — right around a strikeout per inning for the year. What makes this particular over appealing is the matchup: the lefty has dominated the White Sox specifically, posting a 29.2% strikeout rate against Chicago’s current roster for his career.

He’s shown it recently, too. In three of his four starts against the White Sox this season, Messick has reached seven or more strikeouts, including a 12-strikeout outing in one of those matchups. His most recent start against Chicago went six innings with eight strikeouts and zero walks — exactly the kind of clean, efficient outing that lets a starter work deep enough to clear a strikeout prop.

Cleveland also controls this game from a betting-market standpoint as the favorite, which typically means Messick won’t be pulled early for a double switch or pinch-hitter in a close game. With a full workload expected and a history of missing bats against this exact lineup, the over here is well-supported.

Lock These In

All three of today’s picks come down to the same formula: dominant season-long strikeout rates paired with real, specific matchup history that supports going over the number. Check your preferred sportsbook for the latest live MLB odds before locking anything in, since lines can shift closer to first pitch.

Three aces, three favorable matchups, and three strikeout totals that look beatable heading into the first full day of the Division Series.