‘Four Sure’ College Football Week 10 Player Prop Picks
Heading into the first weekend in November, more than a dozen teams are within striking distance of finishing their season in the College Football Playoff. With so many teams still in contention, each game – and individual player performances – matters more just four weeks before the regular season wraps up for most teams.
The CFB betting season has been especially kind for readers who follow this author’s picks. Last week, our picks were 100% accurate and continue an 85% correct selection streak the author has enjoyed in 2023.
Can the streak live on? Find out in this installment of our “four sure” college football Week 10 player prop picks.
Audric Estime UNDER 81 Rushing Yards
The Fighting Irish rely on dynamic RB Audric Estime to power their running attack. Estime has 901 yards rushing on 146 carries, scoring 12 TDs this season. In total, the junior averages 18 touches per contest and has secured more than 1,000 yards of total offense for Notre Dame.
His opponent Saturday – the Clemson Tigers – has held opponents to just under 100 yards per game on the ground. Further, no RB has eclipsed 65 yards this season against Clemson. Only two players this season have eclipsed the 80-yard plateau against the Tigers, and both did so with long runs exceeding 40+ yards.
An 80-yard TD run against NC State notwithstanding, Estime is averaging 3.7 yards per carry in three road games this season and a mere 155 yards total. With this game a must-win situation for the Tigers, expect Clemson to continue their run-stopping streak Saturday and hold Estime under 81 total rushing yards.
Ja’Quinden Jackson UNDER 88.5 Rushing Yards
Since asserting his dominance in a 34-14 victory at Cal, Utah RB Ja’Quinden Jackson has received the lion’s share of the backfield work for the Utes. Jackson has recorded 246 yards rushing on 60 carries, earning 4.1 yards per rush in the process.
Arizona State, meanwhile, has been especially stingy yielding rushing yards in their past three outings. Against Washington, Colorado and Washington State, the Sun Devils have allowed only 52 yards per contest on a mere 2.4 yards per rush.
While Utah is significantly better at running the football than their previous three opponents, don’t expect Jackson to exceed the 88.5 rushing yards mark. Both back-up RB Jaylon Glover and starting QB Bryson Barnes will cut into Jackson’s total to prevent him from hitting his prop bet mark.
Brady Cook UNDER 242.5 Passing Yards
The surprising No. 12 Missouri Tigers are led by junior QB Brady Cook. On the season, Cook has cooked opposing defenses with his arm and legs, completing 70% of his passes for 2,259 yards and 15 TDs while also rushing for 134 yards and five TDs.
In Georgia, Cook and the Tigers will see one of the top defenses in the country. The Bulldogs are allowing 178.5 yards passing per game and a paltry 5.25 yards per pass attempt. Georgia also has nine interceptions and 16 sacks on the season, meaning the Bulldogs know how to pressure their opponents’ signal callers.
Expect Cook to fall well short of his 242.5 passing yard mark against Georgia. After four straight 340+ yard performances, Cook has completed 63% of his passes for 380 yards combined against South Carolina and Kentucky, a pair of defenses that are vastly inferior to the Bulldogs.
Michael Penix Jr OVER 370.5 Passing Yards
The No. 5 ranked Washington Huskies have thrived off the arm of QB Michael Penix Jr. The senior signal caller has completed 69% of his passes for 2,945 yards and 24 TDs in eight games. His offensive statistics accounts for 73% of the Huskies’ total offense this season.
USC – a team many thought would make a playoff push this season – has been abysmal defensively. The Trojans have yielded over 400 yards per outing to opponents, allowing teams to complete 61% of their passes on the year and average nearly 250 passing yards per game.
Expect Penix – who is in the Heisman Trophy conversation – to continue to produce for Washington. Penix barely missed this mark last week against Stanford when he finished with 369 yards and four scores. A strong showing on national television Saturday night will cement his status as a Heisman finalist this season.
Sports Betting Contributor
Ernie is a 25-year veteran of the newspaper industry. He spent those early years working as a sports reporter and editor, but made the move back to the digital world in 2022. Ernie covers college football and NFL betting for Hello Rookie.