Dodgers vs. Brewers NLCS Game 1 Prediction: Can Milwaukee Flip the Script on L.A.?

The two best teams in baseball are running it back, and this time nobody’s circling an easy sweep.

Quick take:

• Pick: Brewers moneyline
• Why: Jacob Misiorowski is the best pitcher in the National League and he’s throwing at home in a series opener he’s clearly been circling since last October
• The number to watch: Misiorowski’s 1.80 ERA led all of MLB this season — and he’s doing it with triple-digit stuff nobody has been able to simply “get used to”

Milwaukee won 103 games this year, a franchise record, and still enters Game 1 of the NLCS as something close to a desperate team. The Dodgers swept them out of the NLCS a year ago, outscoring them 15-4 across four games, with Shohei Ohtani punctuating the sweep by hitting three home runs and throwing six scoreless innings in the clincher. That humiliation is the backdrop for everything happening at American Family Field on Sunday night.

This year’s group feels different. The Brewers actually won the regular-season series against the Dodgers, 4 games to 3, and they’re bringing a bullpen that just posted a 0.47 ERA across 19 innings in the NLDS. Los Angeles is going for a three-peat, but the path through Milwaukee looks nothing like it did last October.

A Pitching Matchup Nobody Saw Coming in March

Tarik Skubal wasn’t a Dodger when this season started — he arrived at the Trade Deadline as a direct response to exactly this kind of October test — and he delivered immediately in his first start of this postseason, striking out seven over six innings of one-run ball against Atlanta in NLDS Game 1. Jacob Misiorowski, on the other hand, has been a Brewer all year and led all of MLB in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252) and WHIP (0.80) during the regular season. His first pitch of the NLDS was clocked at 104.8 mph, the fastest pitch thrown in a postseason game since pitch tracking began in 2008.

The market has barely blinked at the star power on both sides — this is about as close to a pick’em as a Game 1 gets, with the Brewers’ home-mound advantage with Misiorowski just enough to make them a slight moneyline favorite over a Dodgers team still favored to win the World Series outright. The total sitting right around 6 runs tells the real story: both managers expect this to be decided on the margins, not in a slugfest.

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Both rotations have been nearly untouchable this October, which makes the head-to-head numbers below worth sitting with before the first pitch.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Why Milwaukee’s Lineup Matters More Than the Score Last October

Jackson Chourio leads off for Milwaukee and sets the tone for a lineup built to make contact and pressure a defense rather than sit on one swing. Dave Roberts is already shuffling his own order in response — Ohtani, who’s managing a right biceps issue and a left knee that’s limited him to DH duties only, has been dropped down the lineup after a cold finish to the stretch run and a rough NLDS at the plate (.154). Freddie Freeman is playing through a knee issue of his own, though he’s still hit .267 with two home runs this postseason, and Kyle Tucker has been L.A.’s most dangerous bat at .333.

The real swing factor might be the bullpens. Edwin Díaz closed out the final two games of the NLDS for Los Angeles and looks fully back in the ninth-inning mix, with Tanner Scott also available for high-leverage spots. But Milwaukee’s relief corps was arguably the best unit on the field in the NLDS — Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and closer Trevor Megill combined to allow a .169 opponents’ average across 19 innings against San Diego.

Misiorowski’s 0.80 WHIP led all of Major League Baseball this season — nobody put fewer runners on base per inning than the guy on the mound for Game 1.

That WHIP number matters against a Dodgers lineup that thrives on stringing together quality at-bats rather than relying on one big swing. If Misiorowski is limiting traffic the way he did all year, Los Angeles’ path to runs gets a lot harder, especially with Ohtani not running into one the way he did a year ago. Win the way most people expect Milwaukee to try to win — quiet innings, a shutdown bullpen, a crowd that hasn’t seen a pennant since 1982 — and the home team doesn’t need much more than a couple of runs to make Sunday night count.

Prediction and Best Bet

This is as close to a true coin flip as a Game 1 gets, but home mound advantage with the best pitcher in the National League tips it for us. Expect a low-scoring, tense night that goes to the bullpens in the seventh inning and stays there.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Brewers 3, Dodgers 2
2. Best Bet: Brewers on the moneyline

Misiorowski’s stuff and a well-rested Milwaukee bullpen are enough to steal Game 1 at home and flip the script from last year’s sweep.