Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Prediction: Game 3 Picks and Odds

Arike Ogunbowale just dropped the biggest playoff performance in WNBA history to keep Dallas alive, and now the Wings have to do it one more time on the road in a building where they got run off the floor five days ago.

Quick take:

• Pick: Golden State Valkyries -7.5
• Why: Golden State’s defense and home-court edge reassert themselves after an OT letdown, and Dallas’s depth behind Ogunbowale isn’t deep enough to win two in a row against the league’s stingiest unit.
• The number to watch: Golden State is allowing just 75.1 points per game this season — the best mark in the WNBA — and held Dallas to 80 in Game 1.

This series has been a total reversal of form through two games. Golden State, the No. 2 seed that finished 32-12 and boasted the league’s best defense all year, throttled Dallas 104-80 in the opener for the first playoff win in franchise history. Then Dallas stole it right back, riding a Hall of Fame-caliber night from Ogunbowale to a 108-100 overtime win that forced a decisive Game 3 back at Chase Center.

Now it’s winner-take-all. The Wings, who finished the regular season 27-17 as the West’s No. 4 seed, have to find a way to beat the Valkyries for a second straight time — something they haven’t managed since a late-September meeting at College Park Center that went the other way, too. Golden State is 15-8 in true road/home conference splits that favor them heavily at Chase Center, and they know exactly what Dallas is capable of after watching Ogunbowale erase a 24-point series lead in one half of basketball.

Golden State Is Still the Favorite, But the Number Has Moved

Golden State opened as roughly a 6.5-to-7.5-point favorite for Game 3, with the moneyline sitting in the -200 to -300 range depending on the book — essentially unchanged from where they opened the series before Ogunbowale’s eruption. The total has crept up into the high 150s, landing around 157.5 to 158.5, reflecting that both teams have proven over the last two games they can score in bunches when the game opens up. Dallas sits anywhere from +160 to +300 on the moneyline depending on the shop, with the spread hovering around Golden State -7.5. Bettors can track the full live betting odds as the number moves heading into tip-off.

Recent Form

Both teams have been red-hot over their last 10 games, but the underlying numbers tell different stories about how they’re getting there.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Ogunbowale’s Heroics Won’t Erase Golden State’s Defensive Identity

Ogunbowale’s 45-point explosion in Game 2 — 12-of-23 from the field, 5-of-8 from three, 16-of-18 from the line — wasn’t just franchise history, it was a WNBA playoff record outright, topping Napheesa Collier’s 42 from 2024. She scored 22 of those points in the fourth quarter and overtime alone, personally outscoring the entire Valkyries roster over the final stretch while Golden State shot just 2-of-12 in the extra period. That’s an incredible individual night, but it’s also the kind of outlier performance defenses adjust for, and Golden State will spend the next two days building a game plan specifically to make someone else beat them.

That’s where Paige Bueckers becomes the swing factor. The 2025 Rookie of the Year was held to a quiet 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting in Game 2, including an air-balled three with the game on the line in the final two minutes of regulation — though she still found a way to impact winning with four assists, setting up both of Ogunbowale’s biggest shots. If Golden State takes away Ogunbowale’s airspace the way they did for three quarters of Game 1, Dallas needs Bueckers or Jessica Shepard, the newly-named WNBA Most Improved Player, to be more than a facilitator.

Golden State is allowing just 75.1 points per game this season, the best defensive mark in the league, and limited Dallas to 80 points in Game 1.

Gabby Williams set her own bit of history in that Game 2 loss, becoming the first player in WNBA postseason history to post at least 36 points, five rebounds, seven assists, and four steals in a single playoff game. She and Tiffany Hayes combined for 41 points in Game 1’s blowout win, and with Veronica Burton running the offense — she’s recorded at least six assists in four of her last five outings — Golden State has more proven weapons to lean on across a full 40 minutes than Dallas does outside of its top two scorers.

Injuries matter here too. Golden State is down Iliana Rupert for the season, while Dallas is already missing Alanna Smith (leg) and lost Azzi Fudd for the year earlier in the season — both losses that thin out Dallas’s depth in exactly the kind of grind-it-out, half-court game Golden State wants to play at home.

Prediction and Best Bet

Golden State’s defense held serve for three quarters in Game 1 before Dallas’s stars took over Game 2 in a track meet. In a true elimination game at home, expect the Valkyries to play a far more controlled, physical style from the opening tip rather than letting this turn into another track meet where one hot shooting night can flip the result.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 85, Dallas Wings 76
2. Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries -7.5

Dallas proved they can win a shootout. Golden State just has to make sure Game 3 never becomes one, and at home with their season on the line too, that’s exactly what they’re built to do.