It took 10 weeks this season, but it feels like we now are receiving some clarity on which teams will be playing for the national title in January. Georgia’s decisive victory over Tennessee has put them in the driver’s seat of the SEC, where a two-loss Alabama team would need a lot of help to become the first team to make the playoff after suffering multiple defeats.
Georgia is now the favorite to win the national championship, with odds as low as -120 as of this week. Ohio State and Michigan now sit second and third in the rankings, and undefeated TCU makes an appearance in the top four ahead of their all-important matchup with the Texas Longhorns.
Lurking just outside the playoff spots are those one-loss Volunteers, the Pac 12-leading Oregon Ducks, and a feisty LSU Tiger team that just upset Alabama at home.
After a strong October of NCAA football player props plays, we’ve trudged out of the gates in November. Week 10’s best bets finished 0-3, thanks to Bo Nix’s worst rushing output of the season, DJ Uiagalelei’s garbage time bad beat, and Jalen Berger’s 5.4 yards per carry against the nation’s top run defense.
Not our best effort, although our record in the last seven weeks is still 11-7, and Week 11 provides us with an opportunity to course correct with this pack of best bets. Here are 3 player props to consider for college football’s Week 11 slate.
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Michael Penix Jr. OVER 315.5 Passing Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings
After playing on and against Penix at times this season, we’ve learned our lesson (or so we think). The 2022 NCAA leader in passing has been nothing short of a program-changer for the Washington Huskies, and he represents a legitimate cause for concern to Oregon’s conference championship hopes.
The Ducks allow 276 passing yards per game to opposing teams, leaving them a paltry 117th in the FBS at defending a style of play that Penix has displayed a propensity for all season.
We predict that Washington will give Oregon trouble at Autzen Stadium and Penix leads the charge for the Huskies. He should have a field day and throw for at least 350 yards against this Oregon secondary.
Blake Watson UNDER Rushing Yards
Old Dominion is coming off back-to-back losses in which they rushed for a combined 37 yards. Watson himself has only gotten 24 carries in the last two weeks and turned those into 93 yards.
That adds up to 3.9 yards per carry and is a reflection of how ODU has struggled in the middle of their Sun Belt schedule. The Monarchs just haven’t been able to generate a consistent push from their big boys up front.
JMU is #1 in the FBS in yards per carry allowed this season (2.5 yards) and will visit Norfolk as 7.5-point favorites. If the Monarchs have to play from behind, as they’ve done for a few weeks in a row now, the running game and Watson’s carries will be less of a priority for coach Ricky Rahne.
Roman Hemby OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -114 at FanDuel
Hemby and the Terrapins face a tough test this weekend in Happy Valley, but the Nittany Lions have proven to be vulnerable against the run this season to their conference opponents. Penn State gives up 3.9 yards per rush, which ranks 50th in the nation. Hemby should be able to give the Nittany Lions all kinds of problems on Saturday.
The sophomore tailback has averaged 117 yards per game and 6.2 yards per rush in his last three Big Ten games. He will be essential to Maryland’s hopes to keep the Penn State defense on the field for long drives.
Our only concern is that Maryland is a 10-point underdog in this game. Our hope is that the Terps can stay close so that they won’t be tempted to abandon their running game.