Colin Simmons Injury: Texas Pass Rusher Doubtful vs Ole Miss as Spread Collapses

Texas will play No. 7 Ole Miss on Saturday night without the nation’s leading pass rusher. Junior edge Colin Simmons, who has 10.5 sacks through six games, was listed as doubtful on the Longhorns’ first SEC availability report Wednesday after suffering a right high ankle sprain in the 27-24 loss to Florida. Reports from ESPN and others say his injury is week-to-week, with a three-to-four-week timeline floated. The game is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC in Austin.

Simmons went down early in the fourth quarter against the Gators while engaging an offensive lineman on a running play. He stayed on the turf for more than a minute, was helped off by the medical staff and later carted to the locker room. He finished with eight tackles, four tackles for loss and a sack, which pushed his career total to 31.5 sacks, third in Texas history and nine behind Kiki DeAyala’s program record of 40.5. An MRI on Monday reportedly showed no structural damage.

Texas Defense Loses Its Engine at the Worst Time

The timing is brutal for a team that was ranked No. 1 for four straight weeks before dropping back-to-back games by the same 27-24 score. Texas led Florida 17-3 at home and let it get away, and now sits at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the SEC, ranked No. 19. Head coach Steve Sarkisian told his players after the Florida game to “hang together,” and said Monday he would defer to the league’s injury report on Simmons’ status.

Simmons is not easy to replace. He owns 10.5 of Texas’ 19 sacks this season, and his career line of 45.5 tackles for loss and 31.5 sacks in 35 games includes a program-record 5.5 sacks against Tennessee. The depth behind him is also thinning. Freshman edge Richard Wesley, one of the players Texas was counting on to help fill the void, has been ruled out for Saturday with his own reported high ankle sprain, with concerns he could be sidelined longer. Lance Jackson, Zina Umeozulu and interior lineman Maraad Watson are expected to absorb more snaps.

The opponent makes it harder. Ole Miss (5-1) brings quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who is among the most productive passers in the country and is as dangerous with his legs as with his arm. A clean pocket against a Texas front without its best rusher is the matchup Rebels coaches would have circled.

If Simmons stays out the full four weeks, he would also miss home against Mississippi State, a road trip to No. 22 Missouri and a visit to No. 18 LSU. That stretch is the heart of Texas’ remaining playoff path, since a third loss would leave the Longhorns needing help from other results.

What the Betting Market Says About Texas Without Simmons

The point spread has shifted sharply as the injury news landed. One outlet reported the game opened with Texas as a 9.5-point favorite, and it has since come down to Texas -3.5 at most books, a six-point move. ESPN’s betting preview listed Texas -3.5 with moneylines of Texas -162 and Ole Miss +136, and a total of 52.5. Other lines this week have shown totals ranging from 53.5 to 55.5, so the number is still settling. Some analysts have argued the Simmons absence is not fully priced in at -3.5, and ESPN’s preview highlighted an Ole Miss team total over 26.5 as a play tied to Chambliss and the thinner Texas pass rush. One betting outlet also noted Texas is 1-5 against the spread this season, though that figure comes from a single source and should be treated with caution.

The futures market has been even less kind. Polymarket had Texas’ chances of making the College Football Playoff at 36% after the Florida loss, down from more than 70% before the game. FanDuel’s CFP odds, cited by The Athletic, now make Texas a favorite to miss the 12-team field after the Longhorns sat among the strong favorites to get in two weeks ago. Earlier this week BetMGM’s Texas page showed the Longhorns at +1500 to win the SEC, +1300 for the national title and +150 to make the Playoff, with a miss priced at -185. In the same SEC market, Georgia was +110 and Ole Miss +450.

Model-based projections are also pessimistic. Pro Football Network’s playoff meter gives Texas about a 2.5% chance to reach the SEC title game and roughly 31% to make the Playoff, and estimates a loss to Ole Miss would drop its conference championship game odds from 6.6% to 0.4%.

For bettors, the question is whether the market has overcorrected or undercorrected. A swing of six points is large for one player, but Simmons is also the biggest reason Texas’ defensive numbers look the way they do, and the offense has had its own problems. The most important variable to watch before kickoff is the final SEC availability report Thursday night and any late word on Simmons or Wesley, since further movement in either direction would likely shift the spread again. Beyond Saturday, each week Simmons stays out puts another SEC game at risk for a team that has almost no room left to lose.