Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Dustin May: 3 MLB Strikeout Props to Back on NLDS Game 3

The NLDS slate is stacked with elimination-level pitching duels on Tuesday, and that means strikeout props are lining up in a way they rarely do during the regular season. When a starter knows every out matters, they lean on their best weapon more than ever — and for these three arms, that weapon is the swing-and-miss.

From a 200-strikeout ace fighting for his season to a Padres righty who’s been nearly unhittable since coming off the injured list, these are three strikeout overs worth strong consideration on today’s card.

Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+116)

Chris Sale is starting Game 3 of the NLDS for the Braves against the Dodgers, and he’s doing it on a roll few pitchers his age can match. Sale posted 200 strikeouts across 162.2 innings this season with a 2.16 ERA, and he’s been even better when the lights get brighter — nine strikeouts in 6.1 innings against the Phillies to open the postseason, then three more in 1.1 scoreless innings out of the bullpen to close out that series.

The matchup history against this exact Dodgers lineup is the real hook here. Sale threw a complete-game shutout against Los Angeles on Aug. 27, striking out 11 in that outing, and he added seven strikeouts over seven innings in a May 8 start in LA. Across his career, Sale carries a 26.8% strikeout rate — well above league average — and he’s gone over 6.5 strikeouts in 17 of his 27 starts this season. The number here is the 7.5 mark, which he’s cleared in 12 of 27 outings, so this isn’t a layup, but a healthy Sale pitching a win-or-go-home game against a lineup he’s dominated twice already this year gives this number real traction.

Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+140)

Nick Pivetta gets the ball for the Padres in Game 3 of their NLDS matchup with the Brewers, and his recent form makes this number look soft. Since returning from a flexor strain in early September, Pivetta has been dominant — a 1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 22:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 22 innings over five appearances, including his playoff start against the Cubs.

On the season, Pivetta sits at a 2.86 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 34.2 innings, a rate that comfortably clears a pace needed to beat this line. His last nine outings have produced an average of just over five strikeouts per game, and he’s gone over a similar number in several of his most recent starts dating back to September. With a drastically shortened playoff workload still fresh and his stuff looking as sharp as it has all year, the plus-money price on Pivetta clearing 4.5 strikeouts stands out as one of the better values on the board.

Dustin May Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+170)

Dustin May takes the mound for the Brewers in Game 3 against the Padres, and while his overall numbers look rougher than the other two names here — a 4.70 ERA across a career-high 145.2 innings — the strikeout stuff has never been the issue. May racked up 144 strikeouts this season, a career high, and carries a strong K/9 rate that’s made him a weapon even in a season defined by inconsistency.

The plus-money odds on this one (+170) reflect a conservative line set at just 3.5 strikeouts, a number May has cleared regularly even in shakier starts. His stuff still misses bats — the strikeouts have been there all year even when the results haven’t — and in an elimination game, expect the Brewers to let him pitch aggressively and go after hitters rather than pitch around contact.

Lock These In

All three of today’s NLDS Game 3 starters are working with real incentive to rack up punchouts, and the recent form backs it up across the board. Here’s the full card for Tuesday’s slate:

• Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+116)
• Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+140)
• Dustin May Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+170)

Shop these numbers around before first pitch — lines can move fast on elimination-game days, and checking the live MLB odds across a few sportsbooks could land you an even better price than what’s listed here.