Chiefs vs Buccaneers Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

In a big Week 9 finale, the Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

Kansas City (7-0) is favored by a whopping 9 points, a line that has climbed slightly since opening at 8.5. Despite some inconsistency from the big man Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have relied on a balanced attack led by Kareem Hunt and a defense that’s shutting down the run. 

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay (4-4) looks to snap a two-game skid but will undoubtedly face challenges with top WRs missing due to an injury. 

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Betting Odds and Big Trends

The Chiefs enter the game as clear favorites.

• Spread: Chiefs -9
• Moneyline: Chiefs -450, Buccaneers +340
• Total: Over/Under 45.5 points

Kansas City has covered the spread in 4 of its 7 games this season. However, they failed to cover the last time it was favored by over 8 points. So, do with that as you will.

The Bucs, on the other hand, have covered 4 times this season and are strong on the road against the spread. They’ve been going 10-2 ATS away from home since last year. 

Be sure to note Tampa’s recent trend, with 5 consecutive games going over the total. Despite this, games with Mahomes as a home favorite tend to lean toward the under, with a 14-6 record over the last 3 seasons​​.

Can Kansas City Hold Its Dominance?

Kansas City’s defense has been a huge factor in its unbeaten record. They’re ranking third in points allowed per game (17.6) and dominating against the run, giving up a mere 82.3 yards per game. 

This matchup is definitely leaning toward the Chiefs, especially if Tampa Bay is forced into a pass-heavy game script, which they tend to adopt when trailing so far this season.

Linebacker Nick Bolton, despite a tackle rate that averages just 7.5 per game, might see fewer tackle opportunities with Tampa leaning on Baker Mayfield’s arm instead of the run​. With the pass rush, Mayfield will definitely need to launch the ball pretty quickly.

Offensively, the Chiefs have balanced their pass and run game fairly effectively. 

While Mahomes has faced some struggles this season, not looking exactly like himself, he’s throwing nine interceptions. He still leads an offense putting up 24.7 points per game. 

Tight end Travis Kelce has been steady, though a bit quiet, averaging nearly 48 receiving yards per game. The Chiefs need more from their passing game against a Tampa defense that’s weak against the air attack, giving up an average of 255 passing yards​.

Will Mahome go back to traditional Mahomes for this game?

Mayfield Leads the Charge for the Buccaneers

The Buccaneers’ offense will likely revolve around Baker Mayfield. He ranks fifth in passing yards with 2,189 and leads the league with 21 touchdowns. You wouldn’t think that given the Bucs record this year.

Mayfield’s production, however, might be hampered by the loss of his top WRs. 

Kansas City’s defense should be able to take advantage if Mayfield is forced to rely on a depleted receiving corps. Running back Bucky Irving has provided a bit of balance with 395 rushing yards but faces an uphill battle against a strong Kansas City run defense​. Which way the Buccaneers go with this game is anyone’s guess.

On defense, the Bucs rank near the bottom in both pass yards allowed (30th) and points allowed (27th). 

This creates a tough situation for Tampa’s defensive unit, which hasn’t been able to keep opponents out of the end zone all that often.

They’ll have to limit Mahomes’ impact, which could be tough without generating enough pass rush. Lavonte David, Tampa’s top defensive leader, will have his work cut out for him to disrupt a Chiefs offense that has multiple scoring options​.

Prediction and Best Bet: Chiefs Cover the Spread

The Chiefs are the stronger pick here by a long shot. Given their consistent performance and well-rounded roster, we don’t see this game going any other way.

Tampa Bay’s offensive firepower, heavily dependent on Mayfield’s passing game, will likely be limited by Kansas City’s explosive secondary. 

Also, without top receiving options, the Buccaneers’ path to keeping up with the Chiefs seems extremely small.

Our pick is the Chiefs to cover -9. 

Kansas City’s balanced attack and dominant defense should overwhelm a Buccaneers team struggling on both sides of the ball. 

With Kansas City’s run defense limiting Irving and the passing game facing increased pressure, the Chiefs are set up to win this MNF game comfortably. If Mahomes and Kelce can connect early, it may force Tampa Bay into high-risk plays, widening the lead even more.

Expect the Chiefs to cover, taking this matchup by at least 10 points in a high-energy showdown at Arrowhead.