CFP Says ESPN Deal for 24-Team Playoff Is in Final Review, and Futures Markets Are Watching

The College Football Playoff said Friday that a formal media rights agreement with ESPN tied to a 24-team Playoff is in the final stages of review. “A decision on the agreement will be made following this review,” the CFP said in a two-sentence statement, adding that more updates will come when appropriate.

The statement is the first public progress report since the sides reached an informal, preliminary agreement on Oct. 16. Reporting indicates a deal could be finalized as soon as Monday, though the CFP provided no timeline. If it is approved, the field would double from today’s 12 teams beginning with the 2027 season, and the title game on Jan. 25, 2027, at Allegiant Stadium would cap the final season of the current format.

What the 24-Team Playoff Would Look Like

The format under discussion is built around five automatic bids and 19 at-large spots. The four Power Four conference champions would be guaranteed berths, along with the highest-ranked Group of Six team, and the selection committee would fill the remaining 19 spots with the next-best teams in its rankings.

Seeding would reward the top of the field. Teams seeded one through eight would receive a first-round bye and then host a second-round game on campus. Teams seeded nine through 16 would host first-round games, while the bottom of the bracket would travel. The New Year’s Six bowls would keep hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals, and the national championship game would remain a late-January event at a neutral site.

The money is the engine behind the timetable. ESPN is reported to be offering an additional $345 million per year for the added games, on top of a six-year, $7.8 billion agreement that began this season. The new inventory would also help replace the nine-figure sums conferences would give up by eliminating their league championship games, which are expected to disappear under the new model. The regular season is also expected to begin a week earlier, and the 24-team field would run through the remaining five years of the ESPN contract.

Who Benefits From a Bigger Bracket

The biggest winners are programs that currently live on the bubble. Under 12 teams, a third loss is usually fatal. Under 24, one analyst’s hypothetical bracket built on this season’s rankings showed Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida, Utah, Houston and Iowa all comfortably inside the field, with Texas Tech, UCLA, Missouri, Oklahoma State, USC, Oregon, LSU, SMU and Northwestern also making the cut. That same exercise put James Madison in as the Group of Six automatic qualifier.

The Group of Six picture is the most interesting for smaller programs. Boise State has been priced near even money to claim the Group of Six spot under the current format, and James Madison has been among the biggest movers in simulation-based playoff odds. Under an expanded field, those teams would still be chasing a single guaranteed slot, but the at-large pool would also give a deep Group of Six team a second path.

The other side of the ledger is the regular season. Critics, including Nick Saban, have argued that 24 is too many teams. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has pushed back, saying tiered incentives for byes and home games keep the stakes high for the top eight seeds, and the Big Ten will require its teams to schedule a non-conference game against a power-conference opponent, mirroring the SEC’s move to nine conference games this year.

The Betting Market Angle

For bettors, the headline is that today’s “to make the Playoff” markets are priced for a 12-team field. Those prices are not built for 24. Recent sportsbook prices ahead of Week 10 had 11 teams favored to make the field, with Miami, Georgia, Indiana and Notre Dame all priced as heavy favorites in late October. Simulation-based models as of Nov. 5 gave Alabama roughly a 90 percent chance, Texas about 83 percent and Ole Miss about 69 percent to reach the 12-team bracket. In a 24-team world, almost every one of those numbers would climb, and the “No” side on bubble teams would carry far more risk.

That raises a practical caution. Because the new format would not begin until 2027, books are pricing this year’s markets on the current rules, and any 2026 wager should be judged against a 12-team field. The expansion matters most for the 2027 futures that open once the deal is finalized. Long-dated markets are already reflecting the possibility. One prediction-market contract on Iowa reaching the Playoff at least once over a five-season window was priced at a 57 percent implied probability in late October, a price that depends heavily on expansion becoming official.

The structure also changes how futures behave. Eliminating conference championship games removes a late-season hurdle for the favorites, and the first-round bye for the top eight seeds makes the seeding race its own market. Teams around the 17th and 18th spots would want to climb into the hosting tier, while teams near the bottom would fight just to stay in the field. Expect more volatility in seed-based markets and less drama in simple make-or-miss props.

For now, the sensible read is to wait. The CFP has not approved anything, and the final language could still shift details such as seeding rules or the automatic-bid criteria. Once the review is finished, the futures boards for 2027 should offer the first real read on how the market values a 24-team bracket.