California Tribal Leader Says 2028 Is the Goal for Sports Betting Ballot Measure

California tribes are laying the groundwork for another shot at legalizing sports betting in the state, and this time they’re doing it their way. James Siva, chair of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA), said publicly this week that 2028 remains the target for putting a tribal-led online sports betting measure on the state ballot.

Siva made the comments on the New Normal podcast, hosted by Indian Gaming Association Conference Chair Victor Rocha and Executive Director Jason Giles. It’s the clearest confirmation yet that California tribes intend to try again after the disastrous 2022 ballot fight, when both a tribal-backed retail betting measure and a commercial online betting measure pushed by DraftKings and FanDuel were crushed at the polls following hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign spending. Bettors in states where legal DraftKings promo code offers already exist can see the kind of market these companies are still hoping to unlock in California.

Learning From a Costly Defeat

The 2022 vote remains one of the most expensive ballot measure campaigns in U.S. history, and the results were lopsided. Proposition 27, the commercial online sports betting measure backed by major operators, failed with roughly 83% of voters against it. Siva said tribes actually take pride in that number, since they were the ones campaigning against the corporate-backed initiative.

“We’re the ones who opposed that corporate bill,” Siva said. “We had to sacrifice our tribal bill to make sure the corporate bill went down.” That framing matters heading into 2028: tribes are betting that voters will trust a plan built and run by California tribal governments over one built by out-of-state sportsbook operators.

Siva said CNIGA has continued polling residents as recently as June, tracking sentiment to shape a “data driven” strategy rather than repeating the fight that played out four years ago. He also pushed back on suggestions that operators have successfully divided tribes against each other, saying ongoing communication among tribal leaders has undercut that strategy.

Prediction Markets Change the Equation

A major wrinkle since 2022 is the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood, which allow Californians to wager on sports outcomes without state licensing or regulation. Siva argued that gap gives tribes a stronger contrast to draw for voters: tribal sportsbooks would enforce 21-and-over age verification, pay state taxes, and operate under regulatory oversight, while prediction markets currently do none of that and accept users as young as 18.

He pointed to internal polling showing that 60% of Californians now believe online sports betting is already legal in the state, up from the 20s just a couple of years ago. Siva credited aggressive marketing from prediction markets and mainstream sportsbooks for shifting public perception, even though no legal online sports betting market currently exists in California.

Siva also cited data suggesting roughly 60% of Kalshi’s bettors come from California and Texas, the two largest states without a regulated online sports betting market. He argued that legalizing tribal-run online betting could pull that activity away from unregulated prediction markets by giving Californians a licensed alternative.

What Comes Next

Rocha noted that prediction markets are facing mounting legal pressure nationally, with court challenges piling up that could eventually reach the Supreme Court. Giles added that any federal legislative fix targeting prediction markets would likely face a presidential veto under the current administration if Democrats control Congress, leaving the issue unresolved for now.

With more than two years before a potential 2028 vote, tribes have time to build their campaign, refine messaging, and continue polling as the prediction market landscape evolves. Siva was direct about the timeline pressure driving the effort: “The sooner we get there, the sooner we start hitting them,” he said, referring to competing operators. For now, no formal ballot language has been filed, but CNIGA’s public commitment signals that California’s next sports betting fight is already taking shape.