MetLife Stadium hosts its first football of the summer on Friday night when the New York Jets welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 7 p.m. ET preseason opener on NFL Network. Both teams enter 0-0, but the real intrigue isn’t about the scoreboard. It’s about who’s throwing the football. Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield are both expected to sit out, which hands the keys to a Jets rookie who has spent the past week making a serious case for himself and a pair of Tampa Bay understudies trying to prove they belong on an NFL roster at all.

The Jets are fresh off two joint practices against these same Buccaneers in Florham Park, and fourth-round pick Cade Klubnik walked away from that week as the story everyone in New Jersey is talking about. Aaron Glenn’s staff already lists him outright as the No. 2 quarterback behind Smith, and Friday is his first real chance to build on it in front of an actual crowd.

Why the Line Says This One Won’t Be Close

Oddsmakers see New York as the far more buttoned-up operation heading into the opener. The Jets opened as roughly a 5.5 to 6-point favorite, with DraftKings pricing it at Jets -6 (-108) and Tampa Bay +6 (-112) on the spread, while the moneyline has New York around -265 and the Buccaneers near +215. The total sits at 35.5, with slight lean toward the under given how limited both starting units are expected to be. Some books have since settled closer to Jets -5.5, but the shape of the market hasn’t changed: books believe Klubnik and the Jets’ second unit will simply be sharper and more prepared than whichever Tampa Bay arm is throwing the ball.

The Rookie Everyone in Florham Park Is Talking About

Klubnik’s rise isn’t hype without receipts. During Tuesday’s joint practice, he connected with receiver Arian Smith on a 50-yard touchdown strike that had the Jets’ sideline buzzing, and he’s flashed the kind of arm talent and pocket composure that made him a name to know coming out of this year’s draft class. Bailey Zappe and Brady Cook are listed as co-No. 3 options behind him, but neither has separated from the pack the way Klubnik has. If Geno Smith takes only a handful of early snaps as expected, Klubnik should get the bulk of second and third-quarter work, and Friday is his opportunity to show that his practice-field flashes translate against a real opponent trying to get after him. Anyone tracking the live NFL odds for this one has already noticed the market shifting toward New York as the week has gone on.

He’ll also have real weapons around him. Tight end Mason Taylor and Jeremy Ruckert have both been go-to targets in camp, with Taylor hauling in touchdown grabs from Smith in each of the last two joint sessions, while Garrett Wilson and rookie wideout AD Mitchell have given the passing game juice even before Klubnik takes his first preseason snap as a Jet. On the ground, Breece Hall is not expected to see extensive run, but Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis should get carries behind the second-string offensive line, giving Klubnik a run game to lean on if his rookie nerves show up early.

Tampa Bay’s answer to all of this is far less settled. Baker Mayfield is sitting the opener entirely, and Jake Browning, who was signed this offseason to be the clear No. 2, is out with an injury. That leaves Connor Bazelak, a 2025 preseason veteran, and rookie UDFA Jalon Daniels to handle essentially every meaningful snap for the Buccaneers’ offense. Both have shown moments in camp, but neither has the developmental runway or hype that Klubnik currently carries, and it shows in how the market has priced this game. Defensively, Tampa Bay figures to lean on players like Rueben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter, who each had strong showings in joint practice, to keep this one from getting out of hand early, but the offensive disparity is the story. Fans wanting to watch the action live can check the Super Bowl odds board for how each team’s long-term outlook has shifted through camp.

Prediction and Best Bet

This is shaping up as a showcase game for Klubnik more than a traditional handicapping puzzle, and that works in the Jets’ favor. New York’s rookie quarterback has the far better supporting cast, the freshest momentum coming out of joint practices, and a defense that gets to load up against two inexperienced Tampa Bay arms. Expect the Jets’ skill talent to create enough explosive plays to pull away in the second half even with the starters watching from the sideline. Bettors looking to get a number down can compare markets through the BetMGM review or the DraftKings promo code before kickoff.

Backing New York to cover makes sense given the gap in quarterback stability. Klubnik enters this game with rhythm, real receiving weapons, and a clear runway to extended snaps, while Tampa Bay is piecing together offensive snaps with two backups who have combined for essentially zero regular-season experience.