Broncos at Bills: Best Player Prop Bets for MNF

Momentum is a powerful force in sports and creates narratives that seep into locker rooms and find their way to the field. The Denver Broncos started the 2023 season 1-5 after trading away first and second-round draft picks to bring Sean Payton in as their head coach.

The Bills went 3-1 in their first four with a point differential of +84 after three blowout wins in a row against Las Vegas, Washington, and Miami. The two teams couldn’t have looked more different at the time.

Entering their Week 10 meeting on Monday Night Football, the Broncos have won two in a row, including at home against Kansas City last week, while the Bills have lost three of five and failed to cover the spread in two wins over the previous month.

The momentum is shifting and has fed into a spread that favors the Bills by only seven points despite them being seven seeds higher in the AFC at the halfway point in the season.

Josh Allen has been banged up and turned the ball over more frequently through nine games. He’s on pace for over 20 combined interceptions and fumbles lost this year, which would be a career-high.

For Denver, Russell Wilson has already matched his passing touchdown total from 2022, ranks fifth in the league in that measure, and tossed three TDs against the Chiefs last week. The test will be whether he can back that performance up on the road, where he’s thrown more interceptions and has a significantly lower QB rating.

Last week’s Underdog props finished 1-1 during the Chargers victory over the Jets. We look to add to a 5-2 run with our best bets for MNF from Buffalo.

Josh Allen OVER 273.5 Passing Yards

Allen has averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game over his last five and is completing 69% of those throws. That high volume is one of the foundations of this handicap, as is the Bills’ success in throwing the ball at home vs. the road.

Buffalo is averaging two yards per pass attempt more at home than on the road, and Allen has a 13:3 TD: Int ratio at home compared to 5:6 on the road. As a team, the Bills average a full yard more per play during home games and have an extra day of preparation heading into this contest.

The Denver defense is 27th in passing yards allowed and 29th in passing touchdowns given up. The 7.1 net yards per attempt their opponents have gained through the air is the highest mark in the NFL. The Broncos also allow 9.8 yards per pass attempt in road games this season. For these reasons, we like Allen to have a big night in primetime.

Wil Lutz OVER 5.5 Kicking Points

Lutz has been critical to Denver’s scoring efforts this season, as difficult as that may be to hear for Broncos fans. He’s accounted for 31.3% of their points in 2023, a significantly higher percentage than Tyler Bass, who represents 25.8% of Buffalo’s.

Lutz got off to a shaky start in Week 1, missing two of four total kicks in his first home game at Mile High. Since then, he’s 12-for-13 on field goal tries, with a blocked kick last week as his only misfire.

The former Saint has averaged 8.3 points per game in his previous six, and we expect Lutz to surpass five in this matchup. Let’s ride the Over!