Thursday Night Football brings the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) to M&T Bank Stadium to face a banged-up Baltimore Ravens team (4-4) at 8:15 PM ET on Amazon Prime. Jacksonville is a 10-point road favorite with a total sitting at just 39.5, and Baltimore is down to undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano at quarterback after injuries to Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. That combination points to a lopsided, Jaguars-controlled game script, which shapes everything about how to build a Thursday Night Football DFS lineup.

Single-game slates reward conviction on game flow more than anything else. With only two teams to pull from, our approach is to lean toward the favorite, find the touches that survive a run-heavy script, and take one or two shots on the Ravens side where the price is right. Here are five NFL DFS picks for tonight, with DraftKings Showdown salaries and a few notes for FanDuel players.

Trevor Lawrence, QB — Jaguars ($10,600 DK)

Lawrence is the most expensive Jaguar on the DraftKings board, but he has earned it. He is completing 65.7% of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt with 17 touchdowns against just four interceptions, and his 8.6% touchdown rate leads the league. He has thrown at least three touchdowns in four games, including two four-touchdown efforts.

The wrinkle is volume. Jacksonville has attempted only 201 passes this season, the third-fewest in football, and Lawrence threw just 14 times in last week’s 42-7 win over the Colts while still producing three scores. Baltimore ranks 21st in net yards per attempt allowed and has surrendered 11 passing touchdowns, so efficiency should again carry him. He is a strong captain or MVP candidate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with the caveat that a blowout can cap his pass attempts.

Parker Washington, WR — Jaguars ($9,400 DK)

Washington is the clear top target in this passing game with 48 targets, 27 catches, 432 yards and four touchdowns, good for 61.7 receiving yards per game. He has been boom-or-bust, including a one-catch, 16-yard outing last week, but he is the one Jaguars pass catcher with a true volume floor when Lawrence does throw.

The matchup helps. Baltimore’s pass defense is 21st in the league and has allowed 100-plus receiving yards to four different receivers this season, while cornerback Marlon Humphrey has struggled. Kyle Hamilton is excellent in the slot, so expect Jacksonville to line Washington up outside where the matchup is friendlier. If you want a pivot off the more obvious backfield plays, Washington is a high-upside option who should carry modest ownership after last week’s dud.

Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB — Jaguars ($5,100 DK)

This is the biggest value play on the slate, and it hinges on teammate Bhayshul Tuten. Tuten (110 carries, 492 yards, three rushing touchdowns, plus 15 catches for 181 yards and three more scores) did not practice all week with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable, making him a game-time decision. Rodriguez was limited in practice with a hand injury but is expected to play.

Rodriguez has 45 carries for 209 yards and three touchdowns on a part-time snap share of roughly 20 to 30 percent, but a heavy Jaguars lead should mean a lot of ground work late. If Tuten sits, Rodriguez inherits the early-down and goal-line touches at a bargain price. If Tuten plays, he is the more expensive captain option at $14,700, so check the inactives about 90 minutes before kickoff and pivot accordingly. Rodriguez is the kind of salary saver that lets you afford Lawrence and Washington in the same lineup.

Justice Hill, RB — Ravens ($3,200 DK)

Every Ravens lineup needs a cheap source of volume, and Hill is it. He has played around 40% of the snaps all season as the pass-catching back, and last week against the Bills he carried three times for 15 yards and caught four of eight targets. With Fagnano completing just 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards in his debut and throwing most of those passes to running backs, checkdowns to Hill are a logical outlet.

Jacksonville is tied for the 10th-most receptions allowed to opposing running backs, and a trailing Baltimore team will be throwing in the second half. At $3,200 he is a flex piece that frees up a lot of salary, and a PPR floor of five or six catches is realistic if the script plays out as expected.

Jaguars D/ST ($5,800 DK)

With a third-string quarterback making only his second NFL appearance, the Jaguars defense is a top-tier play. Jacksonville has allowed just 111 points, second-fewest in the league, and its run defense is elite at 3.4 yards per carry allowed and 77.4 rushing yards per game. Derrick Henry has managed 45 carries for 156 yards and a touchdown over his last three games, so Baltimore will struggle to stay on schedule and Fagnano will be forced into long down-and-distance throws.

The unit has nine interceptions, third in the NFL, and 12 takeaways overall. It scored a season-high 20 fantasy points last week and has three double-digit games this year. On a slate where touchdowns will be scarce on the Ravens side, a defense that produces sacks and turnovers is a legitimate captain-level option.

Building Your Lineup

Because the game total is only 39.5 and Jacksonville is a double-digit favorite, a 4-2 or 3-3 split on DraftKings that leans Jaguars makes the most sense. Pair Lawrence with Washington or the Jaguars D/ST as a captain-level core, then use Rodriguez (or Tuten if he is active) for rushing touchdown equity. On FanDuel, where the MVP slot costs the same as a regular slot and you only roster five players, a Lawrence MVP build with Washington, a running back and the Jaguars defense is the cleanest path, with one Ravens flex such as Hill.

To pivot off the field, consider fading Derrick Henry at his steep salary. He leads the NFL with 158 carries but is averaging only 4.0 yards per carry behind the 28th-ranked offensive line per PFF, and he is facing the league’s stingiest run defense. Weather should not be a major factor, with temperatures in the upper 60s at kickoff and only a modest chance of showers. If you are looking for more places to put your lineup to work, check out our Underdog promo code page, and keep an eye on the live NFL odds for late line movement before lock.