Categories: NFL

Best NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football: Falcons vs Saints Week 4 DraftKings and FanDuel Lineup Plays

The Week 4 slate wraps up with an NFC South grudge match as the Atlanta Falcons visit the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome, kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both teams enter at 1-2, but the game script here is fascinating for daily fantasy purposes: Atlanta boasts the league’s best run defense while New Orleans owns one of its worst, and the Saints lean on a pass-heavy attack against a Falcons secondary that’s been thoroughly exploited through three weeks.

With only one game on the board, single-game showdown builds on DraftKings and FanDuel are the play, and lineup construction comes down to stacking the right side of this mismatch while still finding salary relief. Here are the five NFL DFS picks worth building around for tonight’s Monday Night Football showdown.

Bijan Robinson, RB — Atlanta Falcons ($17,700 DK Captain / $11,800 DK Flex, $20,100 FD Captain)

Robinson is the priciest player on the board for good reason. Through three games he’s racked up 349 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 66 carries (5.3 yards per carry), adding 13 catches for 118 yards and another score. He’s the overall RB3 in fantasy scoring and is coming off a 213-scrimmage-yard, two-touchdown explosion in Atlanta’s Week 3 win over Green Bay, where he carried 29 times for 194 yards.

The matchup tonight could be even juicier. New Orleans ranks 27th against the run, allowing 127.7 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, and the Saints are further shorthanded with linebacker Kaden Elliss ruled out and fellow starter Pete Werner questionable. Robinson has historically feasted on this opponent as well, posting over 100 scrimmage yards in four of his six career meetings with New Orleans. At a premium salary built for DraftKings lineup and FanDuel captain slots alike, he’s the clearest bell-cow workload in the entire Week 4 DFS player pool.

Tyler Shough, QB — New Orleans Saints ($14,400 DK Captain / $9,600 DK Flex, $19,200 FD Captain)

Shough has quietly been one of the better value quarterbacks in daily fantasy this season, posting at least 22 fantasy points in all three starts. He’s completed 91-of-132 passes (68.9%) for 917 yards, eight touchdowns and just three interceptions, and he’s added 67 rushing yards and a score on the ground for extra equity on both DraftKings lineup and FanDuel optimizer builds.

The matchup sets up well for another big night. Atlanta’s run defense is elite, but its pass defense ranks 29th in the NFL, and the Falcons are already without top cornerback A.J. Terrell due to a groin injury. With Travis Etienne Jr. out and the Saints’ run game limited behind Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller, New Orleans’ path of least resistance tonight is clearly through the air. Shough has a dependable floor via Chris Olave and should have chances to push the pace if this one turns into a shootout, as the total implies.

Chris Olave, WR — New Orleans Saints ($10,800 DK / $12,200 FD)

Olave has been a target magnet all season, leading the NFL with 35 targets through three games and posting a 27-375-1 line, including back-to-back 100-yard outings. He’s averaging 12.0 targets and 23.5 PPR points per game, finishing as a top-12 receiver in two of his first three weeks.

Atlanta’s No. 29 pass defense is exactly the kind of matchup that keeps this role afloat, and the absence of Terrell only widens the opening for Olave to operate as the clear focal point of this offense. As the only Saints receiver seeing a true workhorse target share, he carries one of the safer floors on the entire Monday Night Football DFS board while still offering real touchdown upside in a game that could get track-meet-ish.

Juwan Johnson, TE — New Orleans Saints ($7,400 DK / $8,600 FD)

Johnson has been automatic in the red zone, scoring in every game this season for a 15-173-3 line on 19 targets. He played 62% of New Orleans’ snaps last week and drew eight targets, two inside the red zone, in a performance that netted 23.3 PPR points against Las Vegas.

Fellow tight end Noah Fant (abdomen) is questionable, and if he’s limited or sits entirely, Johnson’s already heavy workload only expands further. Even with Fant active, Johnson has established himself as Shough’s security blanket near the goal line, making him one of the better value plays in this price range for a DraftKings lineup or FanDuel roster trying to fit Robinson and Shough at premium prices.

Drake London, WR — Atlanta Falcons ($6,500 DK / $8,100 FD)

London is the clear value play of the group after posting a career-high 194 receiving yards on nine catches in Week 3 against Green Bay. On the season he’s hauled in 15 of 20 targets for 274 yards, playing on 60 of 61 offensive snaps in Atlanta’s season opener and remaining the unquestioned No. 1 option whenever Michael Penix Jr. is under center.

New Orleans’ pass defense has actually been respectable overall, but London’s route-running and target volume give him a weekly floor that this salary doesn’t reflect, especially in a game where Atlanta may need to throw more than usual if New Orleans’ offense gets rolling first. He’s a strong way to fill out the rest of a Falcons stack behind Robinson without blowing the budget.

Building Your Lineup

On a limited slate like this, correlation matters more than it does on a full Sunday board. A Robinson-London Falcons stack paired with a Shough-Olave Saints stack covers both sides of the game script and hedges against either team controlling the clock. If New Orleans’ offense struggles to run the ball behind Kamara and Miller, expect more passing volume to Olave and Johnson; if Atlanta leans on Robinson to protect a lead, London becomes the checkdown beneficiary as defenses sell out against the run.

Salary-wise, pairing one premium piece (Robinson or Shough) with the Johnson and London value plays leaves enough left over to round out a captain-slot build without overpaying for size. Given the public will likely hammer Robinson and Olave as the two highest-owned plays, using London or Johnson at captain in a DraftKings promo code contest could be a sharp way to differentiate while still rostering correlated pieces from the side of the field getting the volume. For bettors also looking at the game from a wagering angle, it’s worth checking the latest live NFL odds before kickoff, since line movement throughout the day can be a tell for which offense the market expects to control tonight’s game script.

Matt Brown

Matt's love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.

Share
Published by
Matt Brown

Recent Posts

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction Markets: What Bettors Are Saying About Monday Night’s NFC South Showdown

Prediction markets have the Falcons-Saints Monday Night tilt priced as a near coin-flip. Here's what…

2 hours ago

White Sox vs. Guardians ALDS Game 2 Same Game Parlay: Gavin Williams Strikeouts, Low Total, and Cleveland Moneyline

A beginner-friendly same game parlay for White Sox-Guardians ALDS Game 2, built around Gavin Williams…

4 hours ago

3 MLB Strikeout Props to Back for ALDS Game 2 on October 5

Gavin Williams, Cam Schlittler, and Freddy Peralta headline three strikeout props worth targeting across Monday's…

5 hours ago

Yankees vs. Rays ALDS Game 2 Prediction: Can Cam Schlittler Even the Series?

The Yankees send AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler to the mound in a must-win…

6 hours ago

White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction: ALDS Game 2 Pick for Progressive Field

The White Sox lead the ALDS 1-0 after a bullpen shutout in Cleveland. Our prediction…

6 hours ago

Colorado State Fires DC Tyson Summers Mid-Game as Rams Defense Collapses in 56-26 Loss to Oregon State, Clouding Already-Shaky Bowl Odds

Jim Mora pulled the plug on DC Tyson Summers mid-game as Oregon State piled up…

18 hours ago

This website uses cookies.