Aces vs. Mercury Recap: A’ja Wilson’s 34-Point Finale Sets Up WNBA Playoff Push

A’ja Wilson closed the book on the Las Vegas Aces’ regular season with 34 points, and now the real season starts.

Quick take:

• Pick: Aces cruised, 100-82, closing the regular season as the No. 3 seed
• Why: Wilson and a suddenly-scorching Jewell Loyd off the bench were simply too much for a Mercury team playing out the string
• The number to watch: Wilson’s 34 points on the finale pushed her regular-season average to 26.0 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists a night

Las Vegas closed out its regular season slate at the Mortgage Matchup Center early Friday morning, and the Aces made sure to leave Phoenix with a message sent. A 100-82 win over the Mercury locked in the No. 3 seed in the West, pairing Wilson’s MVP-caliber production with a reserve unit that got hot at exactly the right time.

Phoenix, playing out a lost campaign at 16-27, had nothing to play for beyond pride. Kahleah Copper and the Mercury’s young core kept things competitive for a half, but a 33-18 second quarter from Las Vegas turned the game into exactly the kind of tune-up a No. 3 seed wants heading into the postseason.

How the Line Moved and What the Market Saw

Vegas opened as a heavy favorite in this one, and bettors treated it accordingly — the total closed at 174.5 with the Aces laying a hefty number as road chalk against a Mercury club with nothing on the line. The final score cleared the total comfortably and covered with room to spare, which tracked with how lopsided the middle two quarters played out. Anyone leaning on live betting odds during the finale saw the number move in Las Vegas’ favor throughout the day as reports of Phoenix resting several regulars circulated.

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Both clubs enter very different stretches of their calendars — Las Vegas is playoff-bound and buttoning up rotations, while Phoenix already has one eye on the offseason.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Wilson’s MVP Case and Loyd’s Late Surge

Wilson’s line in the finale — 34 points on efficient shooting — was the latest data point in a season that saw her average 26.0 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.9 blocks per game, numbers that put her squarely in the four-time MVP conversation once again. She’s been the engine for a Las Vegas team that dealt with real adversity, including losing Kelsey Plum for the year to a lower-leg injury after a midseason trade sent her to Phoenix.

The bigger development down the stretch has been Jewell Loyd. After a rough shooting season by her standards — a career-low scoring average in the 7-8 point range for most of the year — Loyd erupted for 25 points off the bench in the finale, exactly the kind of scoring punch a No. 3 seed needs from its second unit heading into a playoff bracket that’s suddenly wide open behind Minnesota and Golden State.

Wilson’s 34-point finale pushed her final regular-season averages to 26.0 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists a night.

For Phoenix, Copper remains the engine offensively even in a lost season, averaging 21.6 points a game and delivering All-Star-caliber shot creation all year. But the Mercury’s inability to keep pace with the Aces’ guard depth down the stretch — even with the game meaning nothing in the standings — is the kind of context Las Vegas will take into its playoff opener with confidence.

Prediction and Best Bet

This one’s already in the books, and it played out exactly like a No. 3 seed padding its finishing kick against a team with nothing to play for. Las Vegas dominated the middle two quarters and never let Phoenix’s guards get comfortable.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 100, Phoenix Mercury 82 (Final)
2. Best Bet: Aces covered the spread comfortably as the road favorite

The real intrigue starts now — Wilson and a reinvigorated Loyd carry momentum into a first-round series that will test just how much this Aces roster has left in the tank.