The Buffalo Sabres are trying to snap a skid in a building where the Dallas Stars rarely give anything away.
Quick take:
- Pick: Under 6.5 goals
- Why: Dallas has one of the league’s stingiest defenses and a starter in Jake Oettinger who is stopping pucks at a much higher rate than Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.
- The number to watch: Oettinger’s .895 save percentage against Luukkonen’s .866.
Saturday night at American Airlines Center in Dallas (8:00 PM ET, ESPN+) pairs two teams heading in different directions. The Stars are 10-6-2 with 22 points, fourth in the Central Division, and they are 6-3-1 over their last 10. The Sabres are 8-7-4 with 20 points, sixth in the Atlantic and four points out of a playoff spot, and they have gone three games without a win after a 3-2 overtime loss in Chicago on Thursday.
Buffalo’s season has been a grind. The Sabres were one of the league’s best teams a year ago, but they opened this season banged up and have been inconsistent since. Over their last 10 games they are 4-4-2, scoring 28 goals while giving up 34.
Stars Favored, but the Total Tells the Story
The market sees this one clearly. Dallas is the home favorite at -137 on the moneyline at FanDuel, with Buffalo at +114. The puck line has Dallas at -1.5 (+172) and Buffalo at +1.5 (-215), and the game total is 6.5 goals with the under priced as the favorite at -134 and the over at +110. When a number like 6.5 comes with a juiced under, the books are telling you they expect a tighter game than Buffalo’s recent scoreboards suggest. Bettors comparing lines can use a DraftKings promo code to get started with a new account before locking in a play.
| Saturday, November 14 at 8:10 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Buffalo Sabres | 
+1.5 (-230) |
+120 |
O 6.5 (107) |
| Dallas Stars | 
-1.5 (174) | 
-135 |
U 6 (-108) |
Recent Form
Here is how both clubs have looked lately, along with what happened the last time they met earlier this season.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | @Chicago Blackhawks | -1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-2 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 12, 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-8 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Vegas Golden Knights | +1.5 / 4.5 | Lost 1-4 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Columbus Blue Jackets | -1.5 / 7.5 | Won 5-2 | Won / Under |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Ottawa Senators | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 1-2 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Los Angeles Kings | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 2-3 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @Anaheim Ducks | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 6-7 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @San Jose Sharks | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 0-2 | Won / Under |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Washington Capitals | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 4-3 | Won / Over |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Philadelphia Flyers | +1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 1-3 | Lost / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Winnipeg Jets | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 3-8 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 8, 2026 | San Jose Sharks | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 4-3 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 6, 2026 | @Columbus Blue Jackets | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 2-1 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @Washington Capitals | +1.5 / 5.5 | Won 5-6 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Columbus Blue Jackets | -2.5 / 6.5 | Won 3-1 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Montréal Canadiens | -1.5 / 6 | Lost 2-5 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 28, 2026 | New Jersey Devils | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 1-5 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Winnipeg Jets | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 3-2 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Boston Bruins | +1.5 / 6.5 | Won 3-2 | Won / Under |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Chicago Blackhawks | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 0-4 | Won / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Buffalo Sabres | @Dallas Stars | +1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 0-4 | Lost / Under |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Buffalo Sabres | @Dallas Stars | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 3-4 | Won / Over |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Dallas Stars | @Buffalo Sabres | -1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 1-4 | Lost / Under |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Dallas Stars | @Buffalo Sabres | -1.5 / 6.5 | Won 4-2 | Won / Under |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Buffalo Sabres | @Dallas Stars | +1.5 / 5.5 | Won 4-2 | Won / Over |
| Apr 10, 2024 | Dallas Stars | @Buffalo Sabres | -1.5 / 6 | Won 3-2 | Lost / Under |
| Feb 7, 2024 | Buffalo Sabres | @Dallas Stars | +1.5 | Lost 1-2 | Won / — |
| Mar 10, 2023 | Buffalo Sabres | @Dallas Stars | +1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 4-10 | Lost / Over |
| Jan 24, 2023 | Dallas Stars | @Buffalo Sabres | -1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 2-3 | Lost / Under |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Dallas Stars | @Buffalo Sabres | -1.5 / 6 | Won 4-2 | Won / Push |
Why Dallas Can Smother Buffalo
The Stars’ formula starts in goal. Oettinger has a .895 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average over 14 starts, while Luukkonen sits at .866 with a 3.51 GAA over 12 starts for Buffalo. Dallas also allows roughly 2.3 goals per game as a team, among the best marks in the NHL, and its penalty kill ranks at or near the top of the league. Buffalo’s power play, which went 0-for-13 to open the season, has recovered to 23.3% over the last 10 games on 30 chances, but it still has to beat a very good kill.
Oettinger holds a .895 save percentage and a 2.33 GAA, against Luukkonen’s .866 and 3.51.
The Stars already know how this matchup can go. On October 8 in Buffalo, Dallas won 4-0. Oettinger made 26 saves for his second straight shutout, Mikko Rantanen had a goal and three assists, and Jason Robertson, Sam Steel and Roope Hintz also scored. The Sabres outshot Dallas 26-18 that night and still could not find a goal, going 0-for-3 on the power play.
The Stars have injury concerns of their own. Defenseman Miro Heiskanen is out with an upper-body injury and Lian Bichsel is out with a lower-body issue, which thins a blue line that leans heavily on Thomas Harley, who plays more than 25 minutes a night. Dallas still has the top-end scoring to cover for it. Rantanen leads the club with 21 points, Robertson has 20 and Hintz has 17, with Wyatt Johnston adding 13 assists among his 16 points.
Buffalo has talent too. Tage Thompson leads the team in scoring, and Rasmus Dahlin anchors the blue line. Zach Benson has quietly become one of the most productive playmakers on the roster, with 13 assists in 16 games. But Konsta Helenius (upper body) joined the injury list this week, and Justin Danforth and Matt Grzelcyk remain on injured reserve.
Buffalo has found ways to win high-event games on the road, including a 7-6 win in Anaheim. A team on a losing streak facing one of the league’s best defensive clubs usually struggles to create clean looks.
Special teams could also decide how this one plays out. Dallas has been disciplined enough to stay out of the box and sharp enough to kill penalties when it does not, which has kept opponents from building momentum. If the Sabres cannot cash in on the few power plays they get, they will be left trying to beat Oettinger at five-on-five, something they failed to do in October despite a big edge in shots.
Prediction and Best Bet
Dallas has the better goalie, the better defense and the better penalty kill, and it already beat Buffalo comfortably earlier this season. The Stars should control most of the night. The question is how many goals each side finds, and with Oettinger in net and a Sabres team that has struggled to finish, the total looks like a stronger angle than laying a price on a side.
The pick:
- Prediction: Stars 3, Sabres 2
- Best Bet: Under 6.5 goals
Backing Dallas on the moneyline is a reasonable alternative, but the under offers the cleaner read on this matchup. Always follow responsible gambling guidelines and only wager what you can afford to lose.
