Florida’s penalty box has been busier than its scoresheet, and now the most penalized team in the NHL walks into a building where Joel Hofer has been nearly untouchable.
Quick take:
- Pick: Under 5.5 total goals
- Why: Hofer is stopping .926 of shots, Florida is missing Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, and both penalty kills rank in the league’s top five.
- The number to watch: Hofer’s 2.15 goals-against average.
The Florida Panthers (11-7-2) visit the St. Louis Blues (9-8-2) at Enterprise Center on Saturday, November 14, with puck drop at 7:00 p.m. ET. Both teams are riding two-game winning streaks, and both won by a single goal on Thursday: Florida outlasted Detroit 5-4, while St. Louis beat Utah 1-0 in a shootout.
This is the first of two regular-season meetings, and the Blues own the recent history. They swept last season’s series 11-6 and have outscored Florida 34-26 across the last nine meetings.
The night also includes a celebration of Blues alum Keith Tkachuk, newly inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame, with his sons Matthew and Brady on the visiting bench.
Where the Market Has This Total Landing
The sides are about as close to a coin flip as the market gets. FanDuel has Florida at -114 and St. Louis at -105 on the moneyline, with the Panthers laying 1.5 goals on the puck line at +205. The total sits at 5.5, with the over priced at -128 and the under at +104. That small lean toward the over is the market respecting Florida’s shot volume and the Blues’ history of scoring against this opponent. It also leaves the under at plus money, which is where the value is.
Recent Form
Florida is 6-4-0 over its last 10 and St. Louis is 5-4-1, so neither team has separated itself. The tables below show how each side has actually been playing, along with the head-to-head record.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Detroit Red Wings | +1.5 / 7.5 | Won 5-4 | Won / Over |
| Nov 11, 2026 | @Columbus Blue Jackets | -1.5 / 4.5 | Won 1-4 | Won / Over |
| Nov 8, 2026 | @Boston Bruins | +1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 4-1 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 7, 2026 | @Washington Capitals | -1.5 / 7.5 | Lost 4-3 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Chicago Blackhawks | -3.5 / 6.5 | Won 5-3 | Lost / Over |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Detroit Red Wings | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 3-5 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Winnipeg Jets | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 5-2 | Won / Over |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @Winnipeg Jets | -1.5 / 5.5 | Won 1-5 | Won / Over |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Pittsburgh Penguins | -1.5 / 6.5 | Lost 4-0 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @Ottawa Senators | -1.5 / 5.5 | Lost 5-1 | Lost / Over |
Showing 0 of last 10 games for St. Louis Blues — we just started tracking this team.
No meetings recorded yet between Florida Panthers and St. Louis Blues — we'll track this matchup starting with their next game.
Why the Goals Dry Up in St. Louis
Start in net. Hofer is 8-5-1 with a 2.15 goals-against average and a .926 save percentage, and he just stopped 29 shots for the 10th shutout of his career against Utah. Coach Jim Montgomery says Hofer has been sensational since the first game of the season, and the Blues are 5-2-1 at home.
Florida’s crease is less settled. Akira Schmid, an offseason pickup from Vegas, is the projected starter with Jacob Markstrom as the backup. Schmid is 5-2-1 with a 2.86 GAA and an .889 save percentage, which is not the profile of a goalie who steals games. That cuts both ways for the under, and it is the main reason this is a lean rather than a lock.
The Blues score just 2.79 goals per game, 24th in the league, and Florida is playing without both Barkov and Marchand.
With the captain and Marchand out with knee injuries, the Panthers lean even harder on Matthew Tkachuk, who has four goals and 24 assists, and Brady Tkachuk, who has 10 goals and 21 points in 20 games since arriving from Ottawa. Anton Lundell, fresh off a two-goal night against Detroit, has been the secondary scorer. Behind them the depth is thinner than on the Panthers teams that won back-to-back Cups.
Shot volume is the other piece. Florida averages 29.5 shots per game, fourth in the league, while allowing 26.1. St. Louis takes 27.2 and gives up 28.8, which ranks 24th. On paper that favors the Panthers in the shot count, but the Blues are giving up only 2.89 goals per game, tenth in the league, because Hofer is erasing the volume. Florida scores 3.25 goals per game, 15th, so the pressure lands on a goalie who has handled it.
Special teams point the same direction. Florida’s penalty kill ranks fourth at 86.3 percent and St. Louis ranks fifth at 86.0 percent, so the Panthers’ penalty habit (315 penalty minutes in 20 games, the most in the NHL by a wide margin) is less costly than it sounds. Florida’s power play is a respectable 23.8 percent, but it faces a Blues kill that has been just as stingy. Expect a physical, whistle-heavy game with Radko Gudas and Jake Neighbours trading hits, and more stoppages than rushes.
The counterargument is real. St. Louis has scored four or more goals in six of its last nine games against Florida, and Neighbours has three goals across the past two meetings. If the Blues break through early, the number can climb. Taking the total at plus money gives some cushion for that risk.
Prediction and Best Bet
Hofer’s form, a short-handed Florida lineup and two elite penalty kills add up to a low-event game. A final in the 3-2 range fits what both teams have done lately, and plus money on the under is a fair price for it.
The pick:
- Prediction: Blues 3, Panthers 2
- Best Bet: Under 5.5 total goals
Shop the total before you bet, since a half-goal matters here. A new account at a book like the one behind the DraftKings promo code is worth checking, and the live NHL odds page makes it easy to compare numbers.
