Thursday Night Football brings an NFC East showdown to MetLife Stadium as the Washington Commanders (2-5-1) visit the New York Giants (5-2-1) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. The Giants are favored by about 2.5 points with the total sitting near 41.5, and these teams already know each other well after playing to a 27-27 overtime tie back in Week 5.

A low total and a forecast that includes rain usually makes people shy away from quarterback props. We think that is a mistake here. Both QBs have clear paths to their numbers, and one of our picks is about how few throws Washington might actually need. Here are three QB passing props worth a look, and the reasons behind each.

Jayden Daniels Over 202.5 Passing Yards

Daniels has been steady through the air this season, with 1,250 passing yards (208.3 per game), seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. His last three starts landed at 300 yards against San Francisco, 217 against Philadelphia and 274 against the Rams. That is three straight games clearing this number by a comfortable margin, and Washington keeps passing because it keeps playing from behind.

The obvious worry is the Giants pass defense, which allows just 177.8 passing yards per game, third in the NFL. Daniels only managed 199 yards in the Week 5 tie, and New York sacked him five times. But a stingy yards-allowed number can partly reflect opponents who ran the ball with a lead. Washington is 26th in scoring and trails in games often, which pushes its passing volume up even against a good defense.

At 202.5, Daniels only has to repeat his season average. He has topped his passing yardage line in four of six games this year. That makes the over a fair number to back, with the main risk being another game of heavy pressure.

J.J. McCarthy Over 210.5 Passing Yards

McCarthy comes in healthy after a hip pointer in Week 9. Coach John Harbaugh said he looked fine, and he moved to full participation in Tuesday’s practice. His season line is not eye-popping at 622 yards, but the context matters. In his two most complete starts, he threw for 243 yards against New Orleans and 252 at Houston. Last Sunday’s 127 yards came on only 19 attempts, in a game the Giants won 19-11 while he dealt with the hip and took five sacks.

The matchup is the real reason to like this one. Washington’s defense gives up 240 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the league. That is the exact opposite of the unit Daniels faces. With Cam Skattebo expected back to keep the ground game honest, play-action looks should be there for Isaiah Likely and Malik Nabers.

The line of 210.5 is lower than his two best recent outputs, and a leaky secondary gives him room to get there. The risk is game script. If New York builds a lead, the Giants can lean on the run late and McCarthy’s attempts dry up.

Jayden Daniels Under 31.5 Pass Attempts

This bet pairs nicely with the Daniels yardage over, because it is a bet on efficiency rather than volume. Daniels threw just 25 passes in the Week 5 meeting, and that game went to overtime. A tight, low-scoring matchup with a total near 41.5 does not point to a shootout, and rain could trim both passing attacks even more.

Sacks and scrambles also eat into attempts. Daniels ran nine times for 103 yards against this Giants team earlier in the season, and the Giants pass rush has found a new gear, with rookie linebacker Arvell Reese leading the way. Every scramble or sack is a dropback that never becomes a pass attempt. Daniels went 24-for-35 against the Rams last week, so he can push past this number, but Washington has been able to move the ball efficiently with fewer throws.

Taking the under on attempts and the over on yards is a consistent read: Daniels does not need to pile up throws to reach about 200 yards, as long as the Commanders hit a few chunk plays. Bet365 has this at under 31.5 (-110), and shopping around for a slightly lower number can add a little cushion.

Thursday, November 12 at 8:15 PMSpreadMoneyTotal
Washington Commanders
+2.5
(-111)
+120
O 41.5
(100)
New York Giants
-2.5
(-110)
-134
U 40.5
(-102)

The Card for Thursday Night

If the Giants front controls the game, expect Daniels to be efficient and a little rushed, while McCarthy takes advantage of a Washington secondary that has struggled all year. Here are the three QB props we like, with the lines we found as of Wednesday. Odds can move, so check your book before you bet.

If you are comparing numbers across books, our live NFL odds page is a good place to start, and keep your bankroll in check with the betting calculator. Bet within your means and enjoy the game.