Monday Night Football closes out Week 9 with a heavyweight clash at U.S. Bank Stadium, where the 6-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings in a potential Super Bowl preview. Buffalo leads the league in scoring and total offense, while Minnesota brings the NFL’s most aggressive defense, and with Kyler Murray out with a hamstring injury, Carson Wentz is under center for the home side. That mix of a high-powered offense, a blitz-heavy defense and a backup quarterback makes this a fascinating slate for NFL DFS picks.
On a one-game Monday Night Football DFS slate, roster construction matters more than chasing the cheapest salaries. The game is indoors, so weather is not a factor, and the market has Buffalo as a slight favorite at roughly three points. Below are five MNF value plays for your DraftKings lineup, built around role, matchup and price. Salaries listed are DraftKings Showdown figures, and the same player pool applies when you build FanDuel picks.
Josh Allen, QB — Buffalo Bills ($11,400)
Allen is the engine of the league’s top offense. He has completed 65.9% of his 205 attempts for 1,793 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, and he leads the NFL with 8.7 yards per attempt. He has also run for 270 yards and nine touchdowns, which is the kind of rushing floor that keeps his fantasy ceiling intact against any defense.
The matchup is not easy. Minnesota blitzes on a league-high 69.1% of plays and owns the top pressure rate in football. But pressure that forces Allen out of the pocket tends to turn into scrambles, and blitz-heavy looks leave room for big plays downfield. He has scored at least 18 DraftKings points in every game this season, with three games over 30 and a high of 40.8. At $11,400 you are paying for that floor, and he is the safest anchor on the board.
Justin Jefferson, WR — Minnesota Vikings ($9,800; $14,700 as Captain)
Jefferson has drawn only 40 targets this season, which is surprisingly low for one of the best receivers in the league. That number is the reason to be interested tonight. In Week 1, when Wentz stepped in for Murray, Jefferson finished with eight catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns, and the backup quarterback made a point of feeding him.
Buffalo’s defense has allowed 181 points and 15 passing touchdowns, and opposing quarterbacks have been comfortable picking apart the secondary. With Jauan Jennings also ruled out, Jefferson should absorb an even bigger share of the target tree. He is a natural captain candidate and the centerpiece of any Vikings-side build.
Carson Wentz, QB — Minnesota Vikings ($9,000)
Wentz is the unpopular but logical pairing with Jefferson. Minnesota has scored only 12 total touchdowns all season, with just five through the air from Murray, so the bar for a quarterback upgrade in production is low. Wentz is a veteran who should keep the chains moving against a Buffalo defense that has surrendered 164 first downs.
Buffalo’s pressure rate is the fifth-best in the league, but the unit has only 15 sacks, so Wentz will have windows to throw. Projections peg him near 197 passing yards, which is modest, but his DFS value comes from touchdown equity and the correlation with Jefferson rather than raw volume. At $9,000 he costs far less than Allen, which frees up salary for premium skill players elsewhere.
T.J. Hockenson, TE — Minnesota Vikings ($5,400)
Hockenson is the mid-range value play with a clear role. He has 31 receptions on 37 targets for 295 yards and three touchdowns this season, and his target count is second on the team, only three behind Jefferson. When Wentz started in Week 1, Hockenson caught four of five targets for 36 yards and a touchdown.
Passing volume may not be huge for Minnesota in this one, but the quality of his looks is high, and the tight end position is thin on a two-team pool. At $5,400 he fits comfortably next to a pair of expensive stars, and his catch rate makes him a sturdy flex option.
Jordan Mason, RB — Minnesota Vikings
Mason is the contrarian running back worth a look. Over the past two weeks he has taken more carries than Aaron Jones, 23 to 13, and he may be in the process of becoming the lead back in Minnesota’s committee. Last week against Detroit he handled eight carries on 14 snaps, while Jones had five carries on 19 snaps, so the split is still murky.
The appeal is the matchup, since the Bills have not defended the run particularly well in recent weeks. Mason has not caught a pass this season, so his points depend on carries and goal-line work, which makes him a touchdown-or-bust option. That is exactly the profile you want when pivoting off the popular Bills plays in a tournament.
Building Your Lineup
On a single-game slate, the biggest question is game script. If the Bills build an early lead, Allen and James Cook become the safest scorers, but if Minnesota’s defense keeps it close, Jefferson, Wentz and Hockenson all gain value. A balanced approach is to pair Allen with a Vikings stack of Wentz and Jefferson, which captures both sides of a shootout while keeping you within the salary cap.
If you want to fade the field, consider benching the obvious Buffalo skill players and leaning on Minnesota’s passing game, since the lowest-owned lineups often win big tournaments. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is a notable fade candidate because the Vikings have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. Before you lock anything in, check the latest inactives, and if you are new to the format, our Underdog Fantasy review and live NFL odds page are good places to keep tabs on the market before kickoff.
