Sunday’s Week 9 slate opens early in Madrid and runs all the way to the late window in Foxborough, and quarterbacks are where the best prop value is hiding. Passing yards are the easiest prop to understand: one number, one player, one question. Will he throw for more than the line or not?

We went through the board and landed on three quarterbacks whose lines look a touch too low for how their offenses are actually being used. Each pick below comes with a plain-English explanation of why, so even if you are new to props you can see exactly what we are betting and what has to happen for it to cash.

Joe Burrow Over 276.5 Passing Yards in Madrid

Cincinnati and Atlanta kick off at 9:30 a.m. ET at the Bernabeu in Madrid, with the Bengals favored by 3 and the game total sitting at 52.5. Joe Burrow enters on a three-game winning streak, leads the league with 20 touchdown passes, and is averaging 302.1 passing yards per game after 2,115 yards through seven games. He is completing 73.0 percent of his throws.

The recent trend is what makes this over so appealing. Over his last five games Burrow threw for 282, 428, 190, 292 and 462 yards, so he cleared 280 in four of the five. The one miss was a 190-yard game against Miami that still included four touchdown passes. Cincinnati has also been one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football relative to what the game situation calls for, which means the volume is there even when the game script is friendly.

Atlanta is not a defense that should slow that down. The Falcons allow 223.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 19th in the league, and a 52.5-point game total points toward a shootout rather than a slog. Burrow is available at over 276.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel), a number he has beaten in most of his recent starts.

Sunday, November 8 at 9:30 AMSpreadMoneyTotal
Cincinnati Bengals
-3.5
(100)
-166
O 52.5
(-105)
Atlanta Falcons
+3.5
(-118)
+154
U 52.5
(-115)

Jared Goff Over 261.5 Passing Yards at Miami

Detroit travels to Hard Rock Stadium for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff as a 7-point favorite with the total around 50.5. Jared Goff is averaging 280.6 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns against just one interception, and he has topped 200 yards in six of seven starts.

You might look at last week and hesitate. Goff managed only 176 yards against Minnesota in a game where the Vikings blitzed him all afternoon and Detroit leaned on the run in the second half. That was the first time all season he failed to reach 200 yards, and it looks more like a one-off against the league’s top-ranked pass defense than a trend. The game before that he threw for 303 yards and two scores against Green Bay.

The matchup this week is a big step down in difficulty. Miami is 1-6, allows roughly 226.5 passing yards per game and gives up around 26 points per contest, so Detroit should have plenty of opportunities to throw. Goff has also been far better on the road this year, averaging 336.7 passing yards in three away games. Take over 261.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel), and note that some books are a little lower, so shop around.

Drake Maye Over 229.5 Passing Yards vs. Green Bay

This is the most contrarian pick of the three, so it deserves a careful explanation. New England hosts Green Bay at 4:25 p.m. ET as a roughly 3-point favorite, with the total in the mid-40s. Green Bay’s pass defense is excellent, allowing about 185 passing yards per game, which ranks among the best in the NFL.

Here is why we still like the over. Drake Maye is averaging 247.9 passing yards per game across eight starts, and his last three outings produced 235, 321 and 199 yards, an average of roughly 252. That 199 came in a game he finished 16-of-20 with two touchdowns, which tells you the efficiency was there and the volume simply was not needed in a Patriots win. The prop line of 229.5 sits well below his season average, and our simulation projects him at about 255 yards while another public model has his median near 233.

Maye also gives you extra paths to the number. He is New England’s most dangerous scrambler, he has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games, and the Patriots are without tight end Hunter Henry, which should push more targets to the receivers on the outside. A defense this good can force Maye to throw more as he plays from behind or trades scores, and the lower total simply raises the bar a bit. Check your book for the current price, since this line has moved between 225.5 and 230.5 depending on where you look.

Lock These In for Sunday

Passing props reward patience and clear thinking, and all three of these quarterbacks have a clear path to going over. If you want to track these numbers on the board in real time, you can follow the live NFL odds before kickoff and compare lines across books. Here are the three plays:

Lines move fast on Sunday morning, so confirm the number before you bet and shop for the best price. Please bet responsibly, and only with what you can afford to lose.