Saturday night in South Bend has been circled on the calendar for months. No. 1 Miami, a perfect 8-0 and the top team in the first College Football Playoff rankings, travels to Notre Dame Stadium to face No. 11 Notre Dame (7-1), which sits No. 4 in the AP poll. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, with College GameDay on site. It is a rematch of last season’s opener, a 27-24 Hurricanes win that helped Miami into the playoff field and left Notre Dame on the outside looking in.

If you are a casual fan trying to figure out why everyone is talking about this one, the short version is simple: it is the top-ranked team in the country against a very good team that badly needs a signature win, in one of the sport’s most famous rivalries, with playoff seeding on the line.

Notre Dame Is a Touchdown Favorite Over the No. 1 Team in the Country

The number surprises a lot of people. Caesars opened Notre Dame as a 4.5-point favorite, and the line has climbed all week. By Thursday, books were hanging the Irish anywhere from about -6.5 to -8.5, with the moneyline around Notre Dame -205 and Miami +170 at some books. The total is sitting in the mid-50s, with most books between 55.5 and 57.5.

The big jump came after news broke that Miami star receiver Malachi Toney suffered a high ankle injury in Wednesday’s practice and is planning to have surgery. He will miss this game and is expected to be out at least four weeks. Toney had 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns before the injury, so the market treated his absence as a serious downgrade for the Hurricanes’ offense. Prediction markets agree, giving Notre Dame roughly a 72 percent chance to win. For a side-by-side look at where the books stand, check our live NCAAF odds page.

A quick explainer for anyone new to betting: a point spread of -7.5 means Notre Dame has to win by eight or more for a bet on the Irish to cash, while a Miami bettor wins if the Hurricanes win outright or lose by seven or fewer. Miami is 5-3 against the spread this season and Notre Dame is 4-4, so neither team has been a sure thing for bettors.

Two Quarterbacks, Two Different Roads to Saturday

Miami has been dominant on the scoreboard, but not always comfortable. The Hurricanes beat Florida State 43-35 in double overtime on Oct. 17 and then edged North Carolina 38-35 last Saturday in a game with very little defense. Through it all, quarterback Darian Mensah has been excellent, throwing for 2,425 yards and 25 touchdowns with just one interception. Mark Fletcher Jr. leads the team with nine rushing touchdowns and figures to carry more of the load now. Miami is also without wide receiver Joshua Moore and running back CharMar Brown, who are both out for the season.

Notre Dame’s season has one blemish: a 28-24 loss at BYU in Week 7. The Irish bounced back after a bye week with a 35-13 win over Navy. Quarterback CJ Carr has thrown 18 touchdowns against one interception and added three rushing scores, and Miami coach Mario Cristobal said Carr has “complete control of the offense.” Nolan James Jr. leads the ground game with eight rushing touchdowns, and Jordan Faison has four touchdown catches.

The Irish are not fully healthy either. Linebacker Drayk Bowen is out with an ankle injury, and receiver Quincy Porter and defensive back Chaz Smith are done for the season. Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman called Miami “O-line-, D-line-driven” and said the game will be “a battle at the line of scrimmage.” The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-40s at kickoff with mostly clear skies, so weather should not be a factor.

A Rivalry With Real History and a Fresh Grudge

Notre Dame leads the all-time series 17-9-1, a rivalry famous for the 1980s “Catholics vs. Convicts” era and the Irish’s 31-30 win in 1988 after Miami’s late two-point attempt failed. Miami has won the last two meetings, 27-24 last September and 41-8 in 2017, but the Hurricanes have not won in South Bend since 1984, a 31-13 victory. Notre Dame won the last meeting at home, 30-27 in 2016.

Last season’s opener is what makes this one personal. Miami’s win helped carry the Hurricanes into the playoff field, where they reached the national title game before losing to Indiana, while Notre Dame missed the 12-team bracket. Freeman also noted that the stadium will honor the late coach Lou Holtz on Saturday, so expect a charged atmosphere.

Prediction and Best Bet

Miami still has the more explosive résumé and a quarterback who can keep it close, but losing Toney is a real problem on the road in prime time. Mensah will have to spread the ball around without his most reliable target, while Carr and a balanced Notre Dame offense get to play at home against a Miami defense that allowed 35 points to both Florida State and North Carolina. The Irish should find a way to win, but a one-score game feels more likely than a blowout.

The best bet is Miami with the points. The line has moved about three points since it opened on the strength of one injury, and Miami’s last two games, a double-overtime win over Florida State and a three-point win at North Carolina, were both decided by a single score. Getting more than a touchdown with the No. 1 team in the country in a game with this much scoring potential is the better value, even if Notre Dame finds a way to win.