Sunday Night Football brings a heavyweight test to Lumen Field in Seattle, where the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) visit the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks (3-3). Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, and Seattle is a small favorite at about -2.5 to -3 with a total of 42.5. Instead of chasing running backs and receivers, this guide focuses on the two quarterbacks and the passing numbers sportsbooks have set for them.

If you are new to player props, the idea is simple: a sportsbook sets a number for something a player will do, such as passing yards, and you bet on whether he finishes over or under it. Quarterback props are a good place to start because every pass counts and the numbers are easy to follow. Here are three QB passing props we like, with the reasoning laid out step by step.

For context, the game odds widget below shows where the spread and total stand right now.

Patrick Mahomes Under 221.5 Passing Yards

On paper, Mahomes looks great. He has thrown for 1,309 yards through five games, 261.8 per game, with a 103.1 passer rating that is his best since 2022. But the schedule has been kind: Denver, Indianapolis, Miami, Las Vegas, and a Chargers team he beat 22-6 last Sunday. He threw for 272 yards in that win, yet it was the first game this season without a touchdown pass.

Seattle is a different kind of opponent. The Seahawks lead the NFL in total defense at 237.3 yards allowed per game and in passing defense at just 141.3. They have 16 sacks in six games and play the most zone coverage in the league. Kansas City’s line is banged up too, with right tackle Jaylon Moore out in concussion protocol and left tackle Josh Simmons dealing with a back issue.

Game script points the same way. The Chiefs have leaned on Kenneth Walker III, who leads the league with 665 rushing yards and returns to Seattle on Sunday night. With Rashee Rice out, Mahomes also loses a go-to target. His totals this year range from 184 yards against Denver to 382 against Indianapolis, but the 221.5 number sits right near the middle of his four non-outlier games (184, 225, 246, 272). Lines range from 217.5 to 221.5 by book, so grab the highest Under number you can find.

Sam Darnold Over 222.5 Passing Yards

This looks like a contradiction at first. If Seattle faces a tough Chiefs defense, why bet on Darnold throwing a lot? The answer is volume. He averages 206.6 passing yards per game (1,033 total), but since returning from a glute injury he has averaged nearly 37 attempts per game because Seattle cannot run the ball. The Seahawks rank 30th in rushing EPA, running back Jadarian Price is on injured reserve, and Zach Charbonnet is not ready to return from his ACL injury.

Last week at Denver showed how that plays out. Darnold went 27-of-51 for 278 yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns, and Seattle lost 17-14 in overtime. That is an ugly box score for the team and a perfectly fine one for an Over on yards. When an offense has to throw 50 times, yards pile up even when efficiency is poor.

Kansas City is third in EPA per play and second in scoring defense, so this is not a bet that Darnold will be great. It is a bet that Seattle will be forced to throw, especially if Walker helps the Chiefs build a lead. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL with 49 catches, 717 yards, and seven touchdowns, gives Darnold a target he can count on. The number was 222.5 at some books and 225.5 at others on Saturday, so Over 222.5 is the version to look for.

Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

For the third pick we compared both quarterbacks. Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns pays about +154 and Darnold over 1.5 pays about +120. Mahomes has nine touchdown passes in five games, but he went without one last week and Seattle’s pass defense is the best in football. Darnold has only seven touchdown passes in six games, so neither line is a gift.

We lean Darnold for two reasons. Seattle should keep throwing, which means more chances near the goal line, and Darnold has been strong in the red zone, ranking in the top five in completion percentage at 64.7%. Kansas City is excellent defensively, but Seattle’s passing volume will create looks. All seven of his touchdown passes have gone to Smith-Njigba, so this bet leans on one connection hitting twice. At +120 it is a modest-risk way to add some upside to the card.

Our Three QB Passing Bets for Chiefs at Seahawks

Here is the full card for Sunday night. Lines move through the weekend and books list slightly different numbers, so check yours before betting. If you are new to wagering, a betting calculator shows what a bet pays before you place it.

The theme is simple: Seattle owns the top pass defense and Kansas City would rather run with Walker, which pushes Mahomes down, while Seattle’s heavy passing volume keeps Darnold’s numbers up. Bet responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose.